论文部分内容阅读
[目的]描述和分析上海市闵行区大肠癌发病趋势和特征,为进一步开展相关研究和完善相关防治策略提供依据。[方法]上海市闵行区2002年至2012年大肠癌年度发病数据来自上海市恶性肿瘤登记系统。采用世界标准人口计算标化发病率。趋势描述和分析采用美国国立癌症研究所(NCI)建立的平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change)分析方法及Joinpoint软件(4.1.1.3版)。[结果]2002年至2012年间上海市闵行区居民男、女性和全人群大肠癌标化发病率变动均表现为上升趋势,平均每年分别上升2.44%(95%CI:1.61%~3.29%)、2.53%(95%CI:1.26%~3.82%)和2.43%(95%CI:1.91%~2.95%)。各人群的结肠癌和直肠癌标化发病率均呈上升趋势。大肠癌男女标化发病率比大于1,结肠癌和直肠癌标化发病率比大于1。闵行区分性别各年龄组人群中45至64岁组男、女性和全人群的大肠癌、结肠癌和直肠癌发病率表现出上升趋势,65岁及以上组男、女性和全人群大肠癌和结肠癌发病率均表现出上升趋势,65岁以上组人群直肠癌发病率未发现明显变化趋势。2002年至2012年间仅女性直肠癌占大肠癌发病构成表现出下降趋势,AAPC为-2.59(95%CI:-4.22~-0.94),其余部位发病构成变化无趋势性。[结论]除老龄直肠癌外,闵行区过去10年间各人群大肠癌发病风险呈上升趋势,女性直肠癌对发病风险的贡献下降。
[Objective] To describe and analyze the trend and characteristics of colorectal cancer incidence in Minhang District, Shanghai, and provide evidences for further research and improvement of related control strategies. [Method] The data of annual incidence of colorectal cancer from 2002 to 2012 in Shanghai Minhang District came from Shanghai Malignant Tumor Registry. Calculate the standardized incidence using the world’s standard population. The trend description and analysis were based on the average annual percentage change analysis method and Joinpoint software (version 4.1.1.3) established by the National Institutes of Health (NCI). [Results] The changes of colorectal cancer incidence among residents in Minhang District in Shanghai from 2002 to 2012 showed an upward trend, with an average annual increase of 2.44% (95% CI: 1.61% -3.32%), 2.53% (95% CI: 1.26% -3.82%) and 2.43% (95% CI: 1.91% -2.95%). The incidence of colon cancer and rectal cancer in each population showed an upward trend. Colorectal cancer male and female standardized incidence ratio greater than 1, colon and rectal cancer standardized incidence rate greater than 1. The incidence of colorectal cancer, colon cancer and rectal cancer in men, women and the whole population aged 45-64 years in Minhang population of all age groups showed an upward trend. The incidence of colorectal cancer and colon in men and women 65 and over in the age group of 65 and over Cancer incidence showed an upward trend, the incidence of rectal cancer in the group over the age of 65 did not find a significant trend. Between 2002 and 2012, only the incidence of colorectal cancer in female rectal cancer showed a decreasing trend. The AAPC was -2.59 (95% CI: -4.22 ~ -0.94). The rest of the patients had no tendency to change in the incidence of colorectal cancer. [Conclusion] Except for the elderly patients with rectal cancer, the incidence of colorectal cancer in each population in Minhang District has been increasing in the past 10 years, and the contribution of female rectal cancer to the risk of the disease has decreased.