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解放前,我国海洋环境预报工作几乎处于空白状态。1965年以前,沿海气象台站开展了一些近海海洋气象预报,当时的海浪预报仅是海上风预报的副产品,即根据浦氏风级、浪级对照表查算出来的。开展得比较早的海洋预报项目要算潮汐预报,但也仅限于几个主要港口。1965年以后,海洋预报任务主要由国家海洋局海洋环境预报中心(前为总台)和青岛、上海、广州三个海洋预报区台(前为中心站)承担,各项预报业务得到进一步开展和扩充。军事部门和国家气象局系统的沿海台站也在海洋气象预报方面做了大量工作。现在我们不但能做渤、黄、东和南海的海洋预报,而且许多项目的预报范围已经延伸到西北太平洋或者更远一些。预报项目日益增加,预报时效也在延长,不少项目已能做到长、中、短期预报结合。预报方法也逐渐多样化、经验外推、数理统计和动力数值方法在预报业务上得到广泛应用。下面就几个主要项目谈谈预报业务开展的情况。
Before the liberation, China’s marine environment forecasting work was almost in a blank state. Before 1965, some coastal ocean meteorological forecasts were carried out at coastal meteorological stations. At that time, the forecast of the ocean waves was only a by-product of the forecast of the offshore winds, which was calculated according to the Plover class and the wave table. The earliest ocean forecast projects are tidal forecasts, but only a few major ports. After 1965, the task of ocean forecasting is mainly undertaken by the State Oceanic Administration Marine Environment Prediction Center (formerly the General Station) and the three ocean forecasting stations (formerly Central Station) of Qingdao, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and the forecasting operations are further carried out and expansion. Coastal stations in the military and NMS systems have also done a great deal of work on marine meteorological forecasts. Now we can not only do the ocean forecast in Bohai, Yellow, East and South China Sea, but also forecast the scope of many projects to the northwest Pacific Ocean or beyond. Forecast project is increasing day by day, forecasting time is also prolonged, many projects have been able to do long, medium and short-term forecast combined. Forecast methods are gradually diversified. Empirical extrapolation, mathematical statistics and dynamic numerical methods are widely used in forecasting business. Here are a few major projects to talk about forecasting business.