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采用探索性空间数据分析、马尔科夫链以及空间多层次回归等方法,分析河南省近二十年来区域经济差异的时空演变及其影响机制。主要结论有:(1)空间尺度和时间尺度对河南省的区域经济差异有着重要的影响。空间尺度越小,区域经济差异越大。区级与市级的经济差异整体上呈现扩大的趋势,而县级经济差异趋于平缓变动。(2)从空间分布来看,大致呈现核心-外围的格局,富裕区域主要分布在河南省中部与西北部地区,特别集中在中部地区,而贫困区域主要分布在东部与南部,特别集中在东部区域。(3)投资水平、分权化、产业结构、资源禀赋等是造成河南区域经济差异扩大的原因,而市场活跃度、城乡分异、地形因素等则一定程度上缩小了这种差异。最后,提出缩小河南区域经济差异的政策建议。
Using exploratory spatial data analysis, Markov chain and multi-level spatial regression, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of regional economic disparity in Henan Province and its impact mechanism. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Spatial and temporal scales have an important impact on the regional economic disparity in Henan Province. The smaller the spatial scale, the greater the regional economic difference. The economic difference between district level and municipal level shows an overall trend of expansion, while the economic differences at the county level tend to change gently. (2) From the perspective of spatial distribution, the core-periphery pattern appears roughly. The affluent areas are mainly distributed in the central and northwestern parts of Henan Province, especially in the central area, while the impoverished areas are mainly distributed in the eastern and southern parts, especially in the east area. (3) Investment level, decentralization, industrial structure and resource endowment are the reasons for the widening of regional economic disparities in Henan Province. However, the degree of market activity, urban-rural differentiation and topographical factors have narrowed this disparity to a certain extent. At last, some suggestions on how to narrow the regional economic differences in Henan are put forward.