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传统的“自下而上”清单方法估算的排放清单,其数据的准确性和时效性存在较大局限.基于集合均方根卡尔曼滤波的源清单反演方法,结合WRF-CMAQ(天气研究和预报模式-公共多尺度空气质量模型)被用于对以清华大学编制的2010年MEIC(中国多尺度排放清单模型)排放清单为基础制作的重庆地区SO2排放源进行反演试验以解决准确性和时效性问题,试验时间段为2014年10月15—31日,重庆主城17个环境空气质量国控监测点ρ(SO2)小时观测资料用于反演及检验.结果表明:该方法能够反演重庆地区SO2源排放量,随着反演次数增加,基于反演排放源预报的ρ(SO2)预报误差持续减小,反演4次后预报误差达到比较低的稳定的水平,其均方根误差均低于20μg/m3.五次反演后SO2源排放量用于2014年10月24—29日每天起始预报,其预报的站点、时间平均的均方根误差从100~400μg/m3降至30μg/m3以下.反演中应用局地化尺度减少集合取样误差影响,54与81 km两个局地化尺度反演结果对预报改善效果相当,表明主要影响重庆主城ρ(SO2)的源排放位于主城及周边地区,也说明内源排放对重庆主城ρ(SO2)起主要影响.反演后面源排放量主城区降幅约为30 kg/(d·km2),周边地区减少10~20 kg/(d·km2),主城区部分SO2点源排放量降幅约为25 kg/(d·km2),说明2010年MEIC排放清单高估了试验时段重庆地区的SO2排放.
The emission inventory estimated by the traditional “bottom-up” inventory method has more limitations on the accuracy and timeliness of the data.With the source list inversion method based on the set root mean square Kalman filter, combined with WRF-CMAQ And Prediction Model - Public Multiscale Air Quality Model) were used to perform inversion tests on SO2 sources in Chongqing based on the 2010 MEIC (China Multi-Scale Emission Inventory Modeling) emission inventory compiled by Tsinghua University to address the accuracy And timeliness issues, the test period is from 15 to 31 October 2014, and the ρ (SO2) hour observation data of 17 ambient air quality national monitoring stations in the main city of Chongqing are used for inversion and test. The results show that this method can In the inversion of SO2 source emissions in Chongqing area, with the increase of inversion times, the forecast error of ρ (SO2) based on the inversion of emission sources continues to decrease. After 4 times of inversion, the forecast error reaches a relatively low and stable level The root mean square error was less than 20 μg / m3. SO2 source emissions after the fifth inversion were used for the daily initial forecast from October 24 to 29, 2014. The average root mean square error / m3 down to 30μg / m3 the following inversion Using the local scale to reduce the effect of sampling error, the results of two localized scale inversion at 54 and 81 km are similar to the prediction results, indicating that the source emission of ρ (SO2) mainly affecting the main city of Chongqing is located in the main city and the surrounding area, It also shows that the main source of emission of ρ (SO2) from the main city of Chongqing plays an important role in the main urban area of Chongqing.After the inversion, the decrease of the source emissions of the main urban area is about 30 kg / (d · km2) and the surrounding area is reduced by 10 ~ 20 kg / (d · km2) , Some of the main urban SO2 point source emission decline of about 25 kg / (d · km2), indicating that the 2010 MEIC emissions bill overestimated the emission of SO2 in Chongqing during the test period.