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由可控飞行撞地造成的死亡人数在民航运输飞行事故中占第1位,因而研究可控飞行撞地的原因并采取预防措施对保障飞行安全有重要意义。介绍了事故树模型和贝叶斯网络之间的内在转换关系,采用事故树分析了可控飞行撞地事故发生的主要原因是人为因素和技术因素,其中人为因素包括机组、管制员和维修人员的失误,技术因素包括燃油重量、风速风向、能见度、飞机速度、偏离航线等,最后将事故树转化为贝叶斯网络。以人为因素中的机组人员失误为例,用贝叶斯网络模型对失误原因进行了分析,并计算出机组人员失误概率。
The number of deaths caused by controlled flight hit the ground takes the No. 1 position in civil aviation flight accidents. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the causes of controlled flight into the ground and take preventive measures to ensure the flight safety. The relationship between the accident tree model and the Bayesian network is introduced. The accident tree is used to analyze the main causes of the accident of the controlled flight into the human and the technical factors. The human factors include the crew, controllers and maintenance personnel The technical factors include fuel weight, wind speed and direction, visibility, aircraft speed, departure from the route, and finally the incident tree into a Bayesian network. Taking the error of crew in human factors as an example, the reason of error was analyzed by Bayesian network model, and the probability of crew error was calculated.