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以往关于信任的研究是在稳定均衡的假设下进行的,然而信任演化过程中会表现出非线性的混沌状态,具有复杂系统的特征。基于演化博弈理论和混沌理论,建立了创新网络中组织间信任演化模型,分析了创新网络中组织间信任的复杂性、初值敏感性、分岔行为及内随机性等混沌特性,推导出信任演化方程与Logistic映射之间的关系,采用Lyapunov稳定性理论进行混沌性判定,证明创新网络中组织间信任通过倍周期分岔通往混沌,得到了信任从有序进入混沌的一般条件,运用算例进行仿真展示信任演化通往混沌的过程,分析创新网络中信任演化进入混沌区的实际意义,并选择硅谷和筑波科技城两个实例做对比分析,验证了该研究的实用性和有效性。创新网络中组织间信任的混沌演化反映出信任发展的非线性特点,为创新网络中组织间信任的混沌利用和控制提供理论指导。
In the past, the research on trust was conducted under the assumption of stable equilibrium. However, the process of trust evolution showed nonlinear chaos and had the characteristics of complex system. Based on evolutionary game theory and chaos theory, this paper establishes the model of inter-organizational trust evolution in innovation networks and analyzes the chaos characteristics such as the complexity, initial sensitivity, bifurcation behavior and internal stochasticity of inter-organization trust in innovation networks, Evolutionary equation and Logistic map, the chaos judgment is made by Lyapunov stability theory, which proves that the mutual trust among organizations in the innovation network leads to chaos through doubling-period bifurcation, and the general conditions for trust to enter chaos from orderly order are obtained. The simulation example shows the process of trust evolution leading to chaos, and analyzes the practical significance of trust evolution in the chaotic region in innovation network. The comparative analysis between two examples in Silicon Valley and Tsukuba Science City is conducted to verify the practicability and validity of the study. The chaotic evolution of inter-organizational trust in innovation network reflects the nonlinear characteristics of trust development and provides theoretical guidance for the chaotic utilization and control of inter-organizational trust in innovation networks.