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目的评估2014年5月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,5月全国突发公共卫生事件将较4月将有所上升,但报告事件数可能不会超过2011年以来同期平均水平;报告事件将以手足口病、流行性腮腺炎、风疹、水痘等传染病暴发为主,其次为食物中毒;学校等集体单位报告较多。手足口病将进入发病高峰期;麻疹将维持较高发病水平;布鲁氏菌病的病例会继续呈现上升趋势;人感染H7N9禽流感将维持在较低水平。中东呼吸综合征存在输入我国风险,但风险未较以前明显上升。西非埃博拉病毒病输入我国的风险低。结论 2014年5月全国突发公共卫生事件将有所上升;需重点关注手足口病,一般关注人感染H7N9禽流感、麻疹、布鲁氏菌病、中东呼吸综合征和埃博拉病毒病。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in May 2014 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results According to the recent monitoring data of infectious diseases and public health emergencies, combined with the previous public health emergencies and the epidemiological analysis of infectious diseases, public health emergencies in China will increase in April compared with April, but the reported events The number may not exceed the average of the same period of 2011; the reported incidents will be mainly outbreaks of communicable diseases such as hand-foot-mouth disease, mumps, rubella and chickenpox, followed by food poisoning; and collective reports by schools and other collective units will be more. Hand, foot and mouth disease will enter the peak incidence; measles will maintain a high incidence; brucellosis cases will continue to show an upward trend; human infection with H7N9 bird flu will be maintained at a low level. Middle East respiratory syndrome exists in our country into the risk, but the risk was not significantly higher than before. The risk of imported Ebola virus disease in West Africa is low. Conclusions The national public health emergency will increase in May 2014; HFMO needs to be focused on, with a general focus on people infected with H7N9 bird flu, measles, brucellosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome and Ebola virus disease.