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通过对国际石油价格与世界、OPEC、OECD、北美和中国这几类有代表性的石油供应区域进行定性分析,运用单位根检验、协整检验、VECM、格兰杰分析等计量经济方法,研究得出经济增长期、衰退期和经济平稳期几类石油供应量与油价之间长期与短期关系。从长期来看,不同经济条件下油价与几类石油供应区域的石油供应存在长期协整关系;从短期来看,油价是石油供应量的因;不同经济背景下的世界石油供应量对油价预测均方误差的解释比例约为13%左右,油价波动更多地取决于其他因素。建立了我国油价与石油供应联立方程,发现在经济衰退期,石油企业重组对我国石油产量有负向影响;金融危机、战争等因素几乎未对我国石油产量造成影响,说明我国石油供应策略并未考虑国际环境变化,并得出我国石油供应量与油价均衡点为(3727.98kbbl/d,57.37美元/bbl)。最后给出了经济高涨期、低迷期和平稳期三种条件下我国应制定的相应油价供应策略。
Through the qualitative analysis of the representative oil supply regions such as international oil prices and the world, OPEC, OECD, North America and China, the econometric methods such as unit root test, cointegration test, VECM and Granger analysis are used to study Draw the long-term and short-term relationship between the supply of oil and the price of oil in the economic growth period, the recession period and the economic stable period. In the long run, there is a long-term cointegration relationship between oil prices and oil supplies in several oil supply regions under different economic conditions. In the short run, oil prices are the source of oil supply. The world oil supply in different economic contexts predicts oil prices The mean square error explained about 13% of the proportion of fluctuations in oil prices more dependent on other factors. Established the simultaneous equation of China’s oil price and oil supply and found that in the economic recession, the reorganization of petroleum enterprises had a negative impact on China’s oil production. Factors such as the financial crisis and war hardly affected oil production in our country, indicating that China’s oil supply strategy Not considering the changes in the international environment, and draw the equilibrium point of China’s oil supply and oil prices (3727.98kbbl / d, 57.37 US dollars / bbl). Finally, we give the corresponding oil price supply strategy that China should formulate under the three conditions of economic boom, downturn and steady.