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本文采用灰色系统理论，根据1986—1994年的实测资料，对王家沟流域坝地的发展进行了预测，其结果是：流域坝地面积平均以年1．68％的速度增长，到本世纪末可达到41．55hm2，2005年可达到45．17hm2，2010年可达到49．11hm2。同时对年输沙量与年降雨量、汛期降雨量、汛期24小时大于25mm的降雨量和汛期径流量之间的关系进行了灰关联分析：年输沙量与汛期径流量关系最为密切，其余依次是汛期24小时大于25mm的降雨量、汛期降雨量、年降雨量。分析结果说明：流域泥沙主要在汛期产生，产沙主要是短历时暴雨所致，流域治理是一项长期而艰巨的工作。
Based on the gray system theory and the measured data from 1986 to 1994, the paper forecasts the development of the dam land in Wangjiagou watershed. The result is that the dam land area increases at an average annual rate of 1.68% and can reach the end of this century Reaching 41.55hm2, reaching 45.17hm2 in 2005 and 49.11hm2 in 2010. At the same time, the relationship between annual sediment yield and annual rainfall, rainfall in rainy season, rainfall greater than 25 mm in flood season and runoff in flood season was analyzed. The relationship between annual sediment discharge and flood season runoff was the most closely related, and the rest Followed by the flood season, more than 25mm 24 hours of rainfall, flood season rainfall, annual rainfall. The analysis results show that the sediment in the watershed is mainly produced in flood season, the sediment yield is mainly caused by the short duration rainstorm, and the watershed management is a long-term and arduous task.