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为避免我国沿海城市遭受洪涝灾害侵袭,保证广州市可持续发展,利用8种气候模式数据集和4种排放情景(A1B,RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)对广州市未来时期(2020—2050年)的极端降雨和气温变化趋势进行了预估,基于海平面变化与温度变化的相关关系对海平面进行了上升预测,构建了基于Copula函数的历史与未来时期广州市雨潮遭遇风险概率模型,分析了未来时期不同排放情景下雨潮遭遇概率的变化趋势。分析结果表明,未来时期极端降雨与海平面均将呈现上升趋势,治涝风险概率将呈现增加趋势,表明广州市城区未来将会面临更大的防洪压力。
In order to avoid the invasion of coastal cities in China and ensure the sustainable development of Guangzhou City, eight types of climate data sets and four emission scenarios (A1B, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) 2020-2050). Based on the correlation between sea-level change and temperature change, the sea level is predicted to rise, and the historical and future rainstorm encounter in Guangzhou based on the Copula function is constructed Risk probability model to analyze the trends of the probability of rainstorm encountered under different emission scenarios in the future. The analysis shows that both the extreme rainfall and the sea level will show an upward trend in the future and the probability of waterlogging risk will show an increasing trend, indicating that the urban area of Guangzhou will face greater flood control pressure in the future.