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为了了解我国寿险市场景气状况,把握寿险市场发展规律,推动寿险市场稳健发展,根据景气指数编制理论,借鉴国内外景气指数编制方法,构建我国寿险市场景气指数体系。首先选取能够客观反映寿险市场景气程度的四类统计指标,并利用时差相关法选定先行、一致、滞后指标。然后基于2000~2011年的统计数据,计算寿险市场合成指数,从实证角度分析寿险市场景气波动情况,预测寿险市场发展趋势。最后根据实证结果得出结论,提出对应的政策建议。
In order to understand the prosperity of China’s life insurance market, grasp the law of development of the life insurance market and promote the steady development of the life insurance market, according to the compilation theory of prosperity index and reference of the compilation method of domestic and international business climate indices, we construct the life index system of China’s life insurance market. Firstly, we select four types of statistical indicators that can objectively reflect the degree of prosperity of the life insurance market, and use the time difference correlation method to select the first, consistent and lagging indicators. Then, based on the statistical data from 2000 to 2011, we calculate the composite index of the life insurance market, analyze the real estate market volatility from an empirical perspective, and forecast the development trend of the life insurance market. Finally, according to the empirical results of the conclusion, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.