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近年来,我国各大城市的房地产业出现了快速增长的局面,江苏省的房地产业也发展迅速。探讨合理的房地产开发投资水平也因此成为目前市场中最热的话题。本文试图运用SHTO理论对江苏省住宅投资比重和人均GDP之间的关系进行实证分析。文章选取了1991-2010年江苏省住宅投资和GDP数据,对江苏省住宅投资比重与人均GDP增长之间进行建模分析并对未来五年江苏省住宅投资发展趋势做出了初步预测。
In recent years, the real estate industry in major cities of our country has witnessed a rapid growth. The real estate industry in Jiangsu Province has also developed rapidly. To explore a reasonable level of real estate development investment has thus become the hottest topic in the market. This paper attempts to use SHTO theory to analyze the relationship between the proportion of residential investment in Jiangsu Province and GDP per capita. This article selects the residential investment and GDP data of Jiangsu Province from 1991 to 2010, and makes a modeling analysis of the proportion of residential investment and GDP per capita in Jiangsu Province and makes a preliminary forecast on the residential investment in Jiangsu Province in the next five years.