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中国东北小兴安岭的温带针阔混交林是中国重要的商品木材资源。本文应用森林林窗模型 NEWCOP来模拟森林的生长和更新。研究表明 ,该模型可以再现森林的树种组成动态和森林的分布 ,故可以用来模拟气候变化对森林的可能影响。通过模拟在 GISS 2× CO2 和 GFDL 2× CO2 气候变化情景下的小兴安岭现有森林的动态发现 :在未来 10 0 a现存森林可能有一个快速衰退过程 ,随后可恢复为落叶阔叶树 (如蒙古栎 )为主要树种的森林 ,从而取代了目前针叶树种在森林树种组成的优势地位
The temperate coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest in Xiaoxing’anling, northeastern China is an important commodity timber resource in China. In this paper, the forest gap model NEWCOP is used to simulate the growth and regeneration of forests. Research shows that this model can reproduce the forest species composition and forest distribution, so it can be used to simulate the possible impact of climate change on forests. By simulating the dynamic findings of existing forests in Xiaoxing’an Mountains under the GISS 2 × CO2 and GFDL 2 × CO2 climate scenarios, the existing forest may have a rapid decline process in the next 100 years and may subsequently return to deciduous broad-leaved trees such as Quercus mongolica As the main species of forest, thus replacing the coniferous species in the forest tree species dominant position