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文章使用新疆1985—2006年的统计数据,利用协整理论和格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验对新疆国内生产总值、出口和进口贸易之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明,新疆的国内生产总值与新疆的出口、进口之间存在长期稳定的关系,新疆经济增长是拉动新疆出口和进口的Granger原因,新疆的进口是新疆经济增长的Granger原因,但新疆的出口却不是新疆经济增长的Granger成因。因此,应多方位加强出口产业与出口产品的工作,实现新疆对外贸易和新疆的经济增长良性互动发展。
The article uses the statistical data of Xinjiang from 1985 to 2006, and uses the test of cointegration theory and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between Xinjiang’s gross domestic product, export and import trade. The results show that there is a long-term and stable relationship between Xinjiang’s GDP and Xinjiang’s exports and imports. Xinjiang’s economic growth is the Granger cause of Xinjiang’s exports and imports. Xinjiang’s imports are the Granger causes of Xinjiang’s economic growth. However, Xinjiang The exit is not the cause of Granger’s economic growth in Xinjiang. Therefore, efforts should be made to strengthen the export industry and export products in various directions so as to realize the positive and interactive development of Xinjiang’s foreign trade and economic growth.