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针对输变电工程建设的诸多不稳定因素与复杂情况所造成的造价不确定问题,结合输变电工程特点,分析工程造价内容与风险识别,给出输变电工程造价概率分布函数和蒙特卡洛算法框架,构建基于蒙特卡洛法的输变电工程造价风险评估模型。并对模型进行计算机仿真计算,得出变电站工程的造价风险,以及工程结余率为80%时的工程造价。
In view of the uncertainties caused by many unstable factors and complicated situations of power transmission and transformation projects, combining with the characteristics of transmission and transformation projects, this paper analyzes the contents and risk identification of engineering costs, and gives the probability distribution function of power transmission and transformation projects and Monte-Carlo Luo algorithm framework to build a Monte Carlo-based transmission and distribution project cost risk assessment model. The model is calculated by computer simulation, and the risk of cost of substation project is obtained, and the project cost when the project balance rate is 80%.