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本文构建了基于单位开发规模下双寡头垄断开发决策的实物期权模型,讨论了考虑开发建设成本与时间情况下的最优开发时机问题,并进行了比较静态分析。研究发现,寡头垄断开发商的最优开发时机不仅与物流地产需求市场的增长率、波动率、开发建设成本与时间、无风险利率等因素紧密相关;而且在不确定性较小时,物流地产的等待期权价值较低,领先开发商投资后,跟随开发商会立即跟进进行投资开发;不确定性较大时,物流地产的等待期权价值越高,领先开发商投资开发后,跟随开发商将等待一段时间直到市场需求冲击达到开发阈值时才会跟进进行投资开发。
This paper constructs a real option model based on the development of duopoly monopoly under unit development scale, discusses the optimal development timing considering the cost and time of development and construction, and makes comparative static analysis. The research shows that the optimal development timing of oligopolistic developers is not only closely related to the growth rate, volatility, development and construction costs and time, and risk-free interest rate in logistics real estate demand market. When the uncertainty is small, Waiting for the value of options is low, the leading developers to invest, follow the developers will immediately follow up for investment and development; greater uncertainty, the higher the value of the logistics real estate waiting option, the leading developers to invest in the development, follow the developers will wait For some time until the market demand impact reaches the development threshold will follow up investment and development.