铁路部门在编制货物运输计划时收集的资料和信息往往是不完全和不对称的,很多数据需要通过科学的理论去建立合理的模型来推算,本文采用灰色理论建模,以铁路煤炭运输量预测为例详细说明了灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的建模过程。该模型对于预测城市总体规划中人口、交通运输发展、公共交通以及客货运量等具有普遍指导意义。 The information and information collected by the railway departments during the preparation of the freight transport plan are often incomplete and asymmetric. Many of the data need to be calculated through scientific theories to establish a reasonable model. In this paper, gray theory is used to build a model to predict the amount of railway coal transportation. An example is given to illustrate the modeling process of the gray prediction model GM (1,1). The model has universal guiding significance for forecasting population, transportation development, public transportation, passenger and freight traffic volume in urban master plan.