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我国对外贸易强劲发展,但在贸易价值量顺差的同时,出口引致的资源环境逆差日益凸显。本文通过投入产出模型,定量核算不同年度出口产值、虚拟SO2、CO2排放量,并分析其对经济增长与污染排放的影响。研究表明:外贸出口产值及虚拟污染占国内较大比重,且其经济贡献小于污染贡献,这在典型行业体现得尤为明显。截至2007年,多数典型行业“值污比”小于1。外贸行业污染贡献不容忽视,节能减排潜力更值得“挖掘”。2005年-2007年,外贸虚拟SO2排放量降幅10.4%,出口虚拟CO2排放强度降幅21%。分析表明:结合《十二五规划纲要》节能减排硬性约束要求,外贸行业在规模、结构与技术效应方面,具有巨大的节能减排潜力。
With strong development of foreign trade in our country, the deficit in resources and environment caused by exports has become increasingly prominent along with the surplus in trade value. Through the input-output model, this paper quantitatively calculates the annual output value of exports, virtual SO2, CO2 emissions, and analyzes its impact on economic growth and pollution emissions. The research shows that the output value and the fictitious pollution of the export trade account for a large proportion in the country, and their economic contribution is less than the contribution of the pollution, which is especially evident in the typical industries. As of 2007, most typical industries “value pollution ratio ” less than 1. Foreign trade contribution to the pollution can not be ignored, the potential for energy-saving emission reduction is more worth “digging.” From 2005 to 2007, the export of virtual SO2 dropped by 10.4% and the export virtual CO2 emission intensity decreased by 21%. The analysis shows that in light of the rigid constraints on energy conservation and emission reduction in the “12th Five-Year Plan” outline, the foreign trade sector has great potential for energy conservation and emission reduction in terms of scale, structure and technology effects.