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随着国家“一带一路”战略的推进,中国与沿线国家的贸易往来日益紧密,石油资源作为重要的战略能源在区域合作中尤为重要。基于互惠互利原则,本文对沿线产油国的经济增长与石油生产和石油贸易的关系进行了定量分析,目的是揭示各国经济增长与石油供需之间的作用机理,寻求兼顾中国与沿线各国石油资源贸易的合作策略。本研究整理了2000-2015年“一带一路”沿线产油国的经济增长、石油产量和石油贸易量数据,运用格兰杰因果检验法、VAR模型和脉冲响应分析,对“一带一路”沿线21个产油国的经济增长、石油生产、石油贸易三者间的动态趋同关系进行评估。结果表明,三个变量间的动态关系存在三种明显不同的模式,即循环因果关系(三种变量之间存在显著的接替性循环变化)、互为因果关系(两种变量之间存在一种或两种显著的双向交替变化)和单向因果关系(两种变量之间仅存在一种显著的先后变化)。结合中国国情和模型检验结果,本文提出了差异化的中国石油贸易合作策略,即:采用石油贸易合作,人才、技术资源输出等方式,推动中国与“一带一路”沿线产油国的石油资源贸易;重点加强中国-中亚-西亚经济带和新亚欧经济带的建设,并制定优先合作策略,有利于缓解中国石油供给安全压力,确保“一带一路”倡议的顺利实施。
With the advancing of the “Belt and Road” strategy of the country, the trade between China and other countries along the route has become increasingly closer. It is especially important for oil resources to be an important strategic energy source in regional cooperation. Based on the principle of reciprocity and mutual benefit, this paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship between the economic growth of the oil-producing countries along the lines and oil production and oil trade. The purpose of this paper is to reveal the mechanism of the interaction between economic growth and oil supply and demand in various countries and to seek a balance between oil resources in China and other countries Trade cooperation strategy. In this study, the data of economic growth, oil production and oil trade volume of oil-producing countries along the “Belt and a-Way” from 2000 to 2015 were collected. Using Granger causality test, VAR model and impulse response analysis, “Along the 21 oil-producing countries, economic growth, oil production, oil trade between the dynamic convergence of the assessment. The results show that there are three distinct patterns in the dynamic relationship among the three variables, namely, the circular causation (significant alternation cyclical changes among the three variables) and causal relationship with each other (there is a kind of relationship between the two variables Or two significant two-way alternating changes) and one-way causal relationships (only one significant change between the two variables). Combined with China’s national conditions and model test results, this paper proposes a differentiated strategy of China’s oil trade cooperation, namely: the use of oil trade cooperation, personnel, technical resources output, etc., to promote China and the Belt and Road oil producing countries along the oil Resource trade; focusing on building the China-Central Asia-Western Asia Economic Belt and the New Asia-Europe Economic Belt and formulating a priority cooperation strategy will help alleviate the pressure on China’s oil supply security and ensure the smooth implementation of the ”One Belt and One Road" initiative.