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航空运输产业规划应服从和服务于国民经济和社会发展规划。基于国民经济发展规划预测航空运输需求规模可为航空运输产业发展规划制订提供关键的计量依据。基于回归方程的可靠性和精确性比选,预测研究结果显示,“十三五”期间我国航空运输产出和投入都将维持中高速增长,产业发展呈现出增速趋缓和生产率持稳的“新常态”。
Air transport industry planning should obey and serve the national economic and social development planning. Predicting the scale of air transport demand based on the national economic development planning can provide a key measurement basis for the development planning of air transport industry. Based on the reliability and accuracy of the regression equation, the forecast results show that the output and input of air transport in China will maintain medium and high-speed growth during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, and the industrial development shows a slowdown of growth and productivity Steady “new normal ”.