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从环境库兹涅茨曲线假说出发,结合广西1997～2006年的主要污染物排放量和人均GDP数据,建立了广西环境污染与经济增长之间的多项式回归模型,并采用SAS软件进行分析,结果表明两者间呈倒“N”型分布.针对模型可能是因虚假回归而存在统计意义上的显著,对各序列依次做平稳性检验和对模型的残差项做协整性检验,保证了模型结果确凿可信.模型的建立不仅定量揭示出广西经济增长与环境污染程度之间的关系,而且剖析了经济增长与环境质量之间的变化规律,为广西环境与经济协调发展提供了决策参考和管理需求,为全面实施“生态广西”建设确立了科学依据.
Based on the Kuznets Curve Hypothesis, a polynomial regression model between environmental pollution and economic growth in Guangxi was established based on the data of major pollutant emissions and GDP per capita from 1997 to 2006 in Guangxi. The results were analyzed by SAS software. Results Which indicates that there is an inverted “N ” distribution between the two.For the model, it may be due to the false regression that there is a significant statistical significance, the smoothness test of each sequence and the cointegration test of the residuals of the model, Which ensures that the results of the model are conclusive and credible.The establishment of the model not only quantitatively reveals the relationship between Guangxi’s economic growth and the degree of environmental pollution but also analyzes the variation between economic growth and environmental quality so as to provide a coordinated development of Guangxi’s environment and economy Decision-making reference and management needs, and established a scientific basis for the full implementation of “eco-Guangxi” construction.