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目的定量评估北京市室外空气的疾病负担,为北京市相关决策制定提供参考依据。方法采用世界卫生组织(WHO)提供的综合疾病负担定量评估模型[1],收集2005~2010年北京市室外大气PM 10浓度数据,年总人群死亡数、肺癌死亡人数,计算北京市室外空气短期暴露、长期暴露的疾病负担。结果北京市因室外空气长短期暴露导致全人群死亡约每年6 608人;因室外空气长期暴露导致的肺癌死亡约每年1 951人;如果北京市PM10控制到理想浓度50μg/m3,PM2.5控制到的理想浓度25μg/m3,北京市因室外空气短期暴露每年可减少死亡约4 159人,因长期暴露每年可减少肺癌死亡人数约657人。结论北京市室外空气导致较重的疾病负担,需大力加强大气污染治理,尽快将颗粒物控制到WHO推荐的理想浓度。
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the disease burden of outdoor air in Beijing and provide a reference for the relevant decision-making in Beijing. Methods A quantitative assessment model of comprehensive disease burden provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) [1] was used to collect the data of outdoor atmospheric PM 10 concentrations in Beijing from 2005 to 2010, the total annual population deaths and the number of lung cancer deaths, and to calculate the outdoor air short-term Exposed, long-term exposure to disease burden. Results As a result of long-term and short-term outdoor air exposure in Beijing, the death toll was about 6 608 people per year. The death of lung cancer caused by long-term outdoor air exposure was about 1 951 deaths per year. If Beijing PM10 was controlled to the ideal concentration of 50 μg / m3, PM2.5 control The ideal concentration of 25μg / m3 to Beijing, Beijing due to short-term outdoor air short-term death can reduce the death of about 4 159 people, due to long-term exposure to reduce the annual lung cancer death toll of about 657 people. Conclusion The outdoor air in Beijing leads to a heavier burden of disease. It is necessary to vigorously strengthen air pollution control and control the particulate matter to the ideal concentration recommended by the WHO as soon as possible.