美国著名经济学家瑟罗预言:目前亚洲地区所经历的金融危机,仅仅是全球贸易断层带上的初始小地震,而世界经济的“大地震”迟早会来临。 全球贸易被一条断层所支配,其一端是日本的贸易顺差,另一端是美国的贸易逆差,这条断层已存在了20多年,以1997年为例,美国经常项目收支逆差达1450亿美元;日本经常项目的收支盈余则有1300亿美元,主要是对美国的顺差为660亿美元,其余的640亿主要是对出美国以外环太平洋地区的顺差。同时,这些环太平洋国 The famous American economist Theo predicts that the financial crisis in Asia is only an initial small earthquake in the global trade fault belt, and the “big earthquake” in the world economy will sooner or later come. Global trade has been dominated by a single fault. One end is Japan’s trade surplus and the other is the U.S. trade deficit. This fault has existed for more than two decades. In 1997, for example, the U.S. current account deficit hit 145 billion U.S. dollars. Japan’s current account surplus has a surplus of 130 billion U.S. dollars, mainly a surplus of 66 billion U.S. dollars against the United States and a remaining 64 billion U.S. dollars mainly out of the Pacific Rim surplus outside the United States. At the same time, these Pacific Rim countries