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本文将中国经济高增长与消费低增长现象概括为最终消费的锁定,借助广义资本核算方法及教育预防性储蓄视角,提炼最终消费锁定现象的两项基本假说,即核算锁定论和基本需求主导论。在改进后的长期均衡计量模型指导下,以协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解法对中国1970至2010年相关数据进行分析验证并给出锁定原因及解锁途径:刺激消费总量,提升消费结构,有赖于提高绿色收入占比,监控消费支出泡沫化走势。
This paper summarizes the phenomenon of China’s high economic growth and low consumption growth as the final lock-in of consumption. With the help of generalized capital accounting and education preventive savings perspective, two basic hypotheses of final consumption lock-in phenomenon, namely, accounting lockup theory and basic demand lead theory . Under the guidance of the improved long-term equilibrium measurement model, the co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method were used to analyze the data from 1970 to 2010 in China. The total consumption and the promotion of consumption structure depend on increasing the proportion of green income and monitoring the bubble of consumer spending.