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基于中国31个省份2001-2014年的面板数据,从空间相关性和空间异质性两个角度出发,采用空间计量模型和面板门槛模型对财政支出、城镇化与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:在空间效应的影响下,我国经济增长存在空间相关性,省域经济增长存在显著的正向的空间溢出效应;财政支出与城镇化对本省和邻省的经济增长具有正向促进作用。在以城镇化为门槛变量的面板门槛模型中,财政支出随着城镇化水平的提升其对经济增长边际贡献呈现先增长后下降的倒“U”型特征。最后在实证研究基础上提出相关建议。
Based on panel data from 2001 to 2014 in 31 provinces of China, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between fiscal expenditure, urbanization and economic growth by using spatial econometric models and panel threshold models from two aspects of spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity . The results show that under the influence of space effect, there is a spatial correlation between economic growth in our country and a significant positive spatial spillover effect in provincial economic growth. Fiscal expenditure and urbanization play a positive role in promoting the economic growth of the province and its neighboring provinces . In the panel threshold model with urbanization as a threshold variable, the marginal contribution of fiscal expenditure to economic growth increases first and then decreases with increasing urbanization level. Finally, based on empirical research put forward relevant proposals.