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根据塔里木河干流1957年-2005年的年径流量监测数据,利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验技术和R/S法,对干流年径流量时间序列变化趋势进行分析,并在此基础上采用滑动t检验法和Mann-Kendall法对其突变点进行检验。结果显示:①近50年来,塔里木河干流的年径流量呈现显著递减的趋势,愈往下游线性下降趋势愈显著,随着时间推移,未来有继续下降的趋势,且下降的趋势会更加显著;塔里木河干流径流年内分配受人类活动影响强烈,主要集中在夏季(6月-8月),占全年径流量的50%以上;②突变点分析表明,阿拉尔、新渠满、英巴扎和恰拉水文站年径流量发生突变的年份分别为1972年、1972年、1973年和1972年,阿拉尔、新渠满和英巴扎3个水文站突变年份遵从自上而下的推移规律。
Based on the annual runoff monitoring data from 1957 to 2005 in the mainstream of the Tarim River, using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and R / S method to analyze the trend of annual runoff time series and using the sliding t Test method and Mann-Kendall test its mutation point. The results show that: (1) The annual runoff of the mainstream of the Tarim River shows a significant decreasing trend in the past 50 years, and the more the downstream linear decline trend becomes more obvious. With the passage of time, there will be a downward trend in the future and the downward trend will be more significant; The distribution of runoff in the mainstream of the Tarim River during the year was strongly influenced by human activities, mainly in the summer (June-August), accounting for more than 50% of the annual runoff. ②Analysis of mutation points showed that the distribution of Alar, The year of abrupt change of annual runoff of Chala hydrological station was 1972, 1972, 1973 and 1972 respectively. The abrupt change of Alar, Xinquman and British Bazaar hydrological stations followed the rule of top-down.