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在低碳经济领域,能同时兼顾二氧化碳排放量减少和产出增加的一个核心指标是碳生产率。本文利用1984—2013年数据分别对工业部门与国民经济总体的碳生产率进行了测算,发现工业碳生产率始终低于国民经济总体的碳生产率。经理论分析,提出工业化、城镇化对工业碳生产率均存在着“门槛效应”的假说,继而运用门槛回归方法对三者之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明:工业化、城镇化均是决定工业化、城镇化与工业碳生产率关系的重要门槛。在工业化水平较低阶段,工业化显著促进了工业碳生产率的提高;而在工业化水平较高阶段,工业化则抑制了工业碳生产率的提高;在城镇化水平较低阶段,工业化显著促进了工业碳生产率的提高;在城镇化水平较高阶段,城镇化对工业碳生产率则具有明显的抑制作用。
In the area of low-carbon economy, one of the core indicators that takes into account both the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and the increase in output is carbon productivity. Based on the 1984-2013 data, this paper estimates the carbon productivity of the industrial sector and the national economy as a whole. It finds that the industrial carbon productivity is always lower than the carbon productivity of the national economy as a whole. Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper puts forward the hypothesis that industrialization and urbanization have the “threshold effect” on industrial carbon productivity, and then uses the threshold regression method to test the relationship between the three. The results show that both industrialization and urbanization are the important thresholds that determine the relationship between industrialization, urbanization and industrial carbon productivity. In the lower stage of industrialization, industrialization significantly promoted the increase of industrial carbon productivity; while in the higher stage of industrialization, industrialization restrained the increase of industrial carbon productivity; in the lower stage of urbanization, industrialization significantly promoted industrial carbon productivity Urbanization will have a significant inhibitory effect on industrial carbon productivity at a relatively high level of urbanization.