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为明确安吉县竹卵圆蝽(Hippotiscus dorsalis)的发生和危害情况,林间调查研究了安吉县竹卵圆蝽在竹林中的种群动态,并以历史资料和时间序列分析法ARIMA模块建立预测模型,并用2014-2015年数据进行模型验证评估。结果表明:竹卵圆蝽在整个发生期近现双峰倒M形的变化规律。观测点年单株最高虫口为83~254头,种群密度平均达34.5头/株,有虫株率在56.78%~97.65%间,上竹高峰日在4月13日至4月25日间,近3a竹卵圆蝽的上竹数量开始大幅增加。结果表明预测数据值与现实值误差在合理范围内,该模型的建立将为竹卵圆蝽的预测预报提供了科学依据。
In order to clarify the occurrence and damage of Hippotiscus dorsalis in Anji County, the population dynamics of Euphausia obliquus in bamboo forest in Anji County was studied in this paper. The ARIMA model of historical data and time series analysis was used to establish the prediction model , And use the 2014-2015 data for model verification evaluation. The results showed that the variation of the double-peak inverted M-shape of Ovus ovatus occurred throughout the whole period. The maximum population of single plant was 83 ~ 254 in observation point, the average population density was 34.5 / strain, the rate of entomopathogenic strain was between 56.78% ~ 97.65%, the peak of bamboo was between April 13 and April 25, The number of bamboo on the bamboo oyster nearly 3 years began a substantial increase. The results show that the predicted data value and the actual value of the error within a reasonable range, the establishment of the model will provide a scientific basis for the prediction of Ovipodida.