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为检验是否考虑预见期降雨对水情预报的影响,选取长江上游1998年6月28日至7月2日和8月2~7日两次典型暴雨洪水事件,在作宜昌水文站洪峰流量预报时,将预见期降雨预报应用到水文模型之中,尝试进行水文气象耦会预报试验;其中降雨量由常规降雨预报和气象模型(HIRLAM)定量预报两种方法获得,对宜昌流量预报采用三峡区间降雨径流方案。经试验发现:若预见期发生强降雨天气过程,考虑预见期降雨比不考虑的水情预报效果要好。
In order to test whether the impact of forecasted rainfall on hydrological forecast was taken into account, two typical storm events from June 28, 1998 to July 2 and August 2 to 7, 1998, in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, , The forecasted rainfall forecast is applied to the hydrological model to try the hydrometeorological coupling forecast experiment. The rainfall is obtained by two methods, conventional rainfall forecast and meteorological model (HIRLAM) quantitative forecast, Rainfall runoff program. The test found that: if the expected period of heavy rainfall weather process, consider the expected period of rainfall than did not consider the hydrological forecasting effect is better.