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宏观税负影响经济增长有两条路径,即本身的抑制作用和通过影响财政支出产生的促进作用。利用我国1952~2011年数据建立多个VAR模型,结果发现宏观税率与GDP、TFP之间并不存在长期稳定关系;财政收入弹性通过影响财政支出弹性促进投资增长率和TFP增长率,其中促进TFP增长率在提高GDP增长率上起了决定性作用;财政收入弹性本身对经济增长的阻碍作用并不强烈,但我国财政支出弹性对TFP增长率的长期促进作用相当微弱。
Macro tax burden affect economic growth in two ways, that is, its own inhibitory effect and through the promotion of fiscal spending generated by the promotion. Using VAR data from 1952 to 2011 in our country, we found that there is no long-term stable relationship between macro-tax rate and GDP and TFP. Fiscal revenue elasticity promotes the investment growth rate and TFP growth rate by affecting the fiscal expenditure elasticity, which promotes TFP The growth rate plays a decisive role in raising the GDP growth rate. The fiscal revenue elasticity itself does not have a strong impediment to economic growth. However, the long-term promoting effect of the fiscal expenditure elasticity on TFP growth rate in China is rather weak.