最近一段时间,西方经济研究机构的预测与建议纷纷将重点指向中国。一方面,这表明中国经济在全球经济走势中已成为重要因素;另一方面,这也表明世界对中国经济未来可持续发展的信心不足。缺乏信心的背后,隐含着对中国发展模式的不了解。当然,此起彼伏“唱衰中国经济”亦隐含着“唱衰中国政治”的动机。如何认识当代中国的崛起?中国30多年来波澜壮阔的改革是由多个相互关联、相互重叠的社会转型过程组成的。世界上没有哪一个大国经历了中国这样的多重转型过程,也没有哪一个像中国这样在全球化的外部冲击 In recent days, the forecasts and suggestions of Western economic research institutes have all focused on China. On the one hand, this shows that China’s economy has become an important factor in the global economic trend. On the other hand, it shows that the world is not confident in the sustainable development of China’s economy. Behind a lack of confidence implies a lack of understanding of China’s development model. Of course, the motivation behind the rise and fall of “bad economy” is also implied. How to Understand the Rise of Contemporary China? The magnificent reform in more than 30 years in China consists of several interconnected and overlapping social transformation processes. No major power in the world has undergone such a multiple transformation process as China, nor has any external shock such as China’s in globalization