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考虑两种产品需求替代下的自回归移动平均时间序列,零售商采用最小均方差技术预测市场需求,以订货点法确定订货量的两级供应链牛鞭效应量化模型,并对该模型牛鞭效应的大小及其影响因素进行理论分析和算例验证,研究表明:1)需求替代情形下牛鞭效应的表达式对有无需求替代的情况都适用;2)替代系数对被替代产品的牛鞭效应无影响,对替代产品的牛鞭效应有影响,并且替代系数同替代产品的牛鞭效应变化方向一致;3)需求替代情形下缩短提前期并不一定能减少替代和被替代产品的牛鞭效应.
Considering the autoregressive moving average time series under the substitution of two kinds of product demand, the retailer adopts minimum mean square error to predict the market demand, and uses order point method to determine the double-level supply chain bullwhip effect quantification model. The results show that: 1) The expression of bullwhip effect under the situation of demand substitution is applicable to the situation with or without demand substitution; 2) The effect of substitution coefficient on the replaced cattle The whip effect has no effect on the bullwhip effect of the alternative product, and the substitution coefficient is in the same direction as the bullwhip effect of the alternative product. 3) Shortening the lead time in the case of demand substitution does not necessarily reduce the number of cattle replacing and substituting products Whip effect.