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利用喀什地区1961—2013年6—9月气温、日照时数、降水量月资料及1990—2013年玉米生育期资料,选取资料完整的4个代表站,采用一元线性回归分析方法 ,分析喀什地区气候变化及玉米生育期变化特征,重点探讨喀什近期气候变化对玉米生产的影响。结果表明:近53 a喀什市、巴楚县、叶城县6—9月平均、平均最高、平均最低气温及降水量总体呈上升趋势;日照时数,喀什市和巴楚县总体呈增加趋势,叶城县9月日照时数呈减少趋势;麦盖提县7—9月平均气温、8月降水量,6、8、9月日照时数呈下降(减少)趋势。喀什市、巴楚县玉米各发育期均呈不同程度的提前趋势;叶城县玉米各发育期的提前(推迟)趋势不明显,其中播种期、七叶期呈较弱的提前趋势(0.06~0.67 d/10 a),其它发育期呈延迟趋势,趋势为0.01~2.92 d/10 a,其中抽雄始期、开花始期的延迟趋势相对明显,通过了a=0.05显著性检验;麦盖提县玉米8月出现的抽雄期、开花期、吐丝普期呈延迟趋势外,其余的发育期均表现出不同程度的提前趋势。
Based on the air temperature, sunshine hours, precipitation data and rainfall data from 1990 to 2013 from 1961 to 2013 in Kashi Prefecture, four representative stations with the complete data were selected. One-way linear regression analysis method was used to analyze the Kashgar region Climate change and maize growth period characteristics of changes, focusing on the Kashgar recent climate change on maize production. The results showed that in the recent 53 aarities, the average was the highest in June-September in Kashgar, Bachu and Yecheng counties with the mean minimum temperature and precipitation increasing. The sunshine hours, Kashgar and Bachu generally showed an increasing trend , Yecheng County in September showed a decreasing trend of sunshine hours; Mai Geti County, July-September average temperature, August precipitation, June, August and September sunshine hours showed a decrease (decrease) trend. Maize in Kashgar City and Bachu County showed earlier advance in different developmental stages. The trend of early (postponed) development of maize was not obvious in Yecheng County, and the weakened advance in sowing and seven-leaf stages was 0.06 ~ 0.67 d / 10 a). The trend of other developmental stages was a delay of 0.01-2.92 d / 10 a, of which the delay of tasseling initiation and flowering initiation was relatively obvious and passed the a = 0.05 significance test. In August, the tasseling, flowering and plucking phases showed a delayed trend, while the rest of the developmental stages showed different degrees of advance trend.