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针对全球气候变化对水文过程及极值事件的影响,在HadCM3的A2、B2情景下,应用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)预测了黄河源区未来气温、降雨和蒸发极值的变化趋势,并讨论了模拟效果。结果表明,模型对温度极值的捕捉效果不错,但降雨和蒸发略差,尤其是降水量、蒸发量较大的夏秋季。多数降水极值指标的变化趋势能成功模拟,而对量的捕捉能力是随指标变化的,黄河源区未来不同季节平均气温、蒸发的平均值、极值均呈增加趋势,最大持续干旱日显著减少,极端降雨强度在春秋季节大幅增加。这些变化将对高原寒区的水文及生态环境带来积极影响。
In view of the influence of global climate change on hydrological processes and extreme events, the statistical downward scaling model (SDSM) is used to predict the future trend of temperature, rainfall and evaporation extreme in the source region of Yellow River under the HadCM3 A2 and B2 scenarios The simulation effect. The results show that the model can capture the extreme temperature well, but rainfall and evaporation are slightly worse, especially in the summer and autumn with large amount of precipitation and evaporation. The trend of most precipitation extremes can be simulated successfully, and the capture ability of quantity changes with the index. The average temperature and evaporation mean value and extremum in different seasons in the source region of the Yellow River show an increasing trend, and the maximum persistent drought day is significant Reduce the extreme rainfall intensity in the spring and autumn season increased substantially. These changes will have a positive impact on the hydrological and ecological environment in cold areas of the plateau.