从几何空战理论经过能量空战理论,直到角度空战理论,空战理论的发展更多的是从战斗机性能的角度来分析空战过程,忽略了作战飞行员在决策过程中起到的作用。本文分析空战飞机的客观数据的变化特征,提出了一种基于隐马尔可夫的近距空战流程分析方法,使用维特比算法判断飞行员在空战过程中的状态序列,从而获得了理论上的空战决策点。在理论分析上,提出了一种空战决策点理论用以评判飞行员飞行品质。通过实验仿真验证了使用隐马尔可夫模型讨论近距空战的可行性,并且发现飞行员空战决策点包络处于包围趋势时,飞行员获胜的可能性越大。 From the theory of geometric air combat through energy air combat theory until the angle of air combat theory, the development of air combat theory more from the perspective of fighter performance analysis of air combat process, ignoring the role played by combat pilots in the decision-making process. This paper analyzes the changing characteristics of the objective data of air combat aircraft and proposes a hidden Markov-based short-range air combat process analysis method. The Viterbi algorithm is used to determine the pilot’s state sequence in air combat, so as to obtain the theoretical air combat decision point. In theoretical analysis, an air combat decision-making point theory is proposed to evaluate the pilot’s flight quality. The feasibility of using close Markov model to discuss the short-range air combat is verified by the experimental simulation, and the pilot is more likely to win the pilot when the envelope of the air combat decision-making point is in the encirclement trend.