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为了制定合理的边坡防治措施,需要针对边坡破坏进行定量的风险评估.采用多重响应面法构建边坡系统的代理模型,基于代表性滑面进行空间变异土坡系统风险评估.并通过一个考虑土体参数空间变异性的多层土坡算例系统地研究了代表性滑面的选取对复杂边坡系统风险评估的影响.结果表明:在考虑空间变异性的情况下,边坡系统性大大增强,需要更多有效的代表性滑面才能较好代表整个边坡系统.从代表边坡系统失效概率的角度识别的代表性滑面在一定程度上可以代表边坡系统失效风险.即使对于考虑空间变异性、具有很强系统性的复杂边坡系统,基于代表性滑面进行边坡系统风险评估的方法仍是一条可行的途径.
In order to make a reasonable slope prevention and control measures, it is necessary to carry out a quantitative risk assessment for slope damage.Multiresponsive surface method is used to construct the proxy model of slope system, and based on the representative slip surface, The influence of the representative slip surface on the risk assessment of complex slope system is systematically studied with the example of multi-layered soil slope taking into account the spatial variability of soil parameters. The results show that under the consideration of spatial variability, Greatly enhance the need for more effective representation of the sliding surface to better represent the entire slope system.From the perspective of the probability of failure on behalf of the slope system to identify the representative sliding surface to some extent can represent the slope system failure risk even for Considering the spatial variability and complex systemic slope system, the method of slope system risk assessment based on representative slip surface is still a feasible approach.