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中国经济超过3 0年保持了快速的增长,在人口红利逐渐消失,经济增长不能再倚重投资的背景下,未来中国经济发展态势将怎样?本文分析劳动适龄人口增速放缓甚至开始下降时,中国是否仍有能力将G D P的一半用于投资,而这种投资是否会变得低效;由于农村人口逐渐减少,劳动参与率和就业率会下降,而未来农村劳动人口的转移是否将更多地流向服务部门而不是生产率较高的制造部门。文章认为,中国未来经济增长速率将从现在的年均10%逐渐降至203 0年的6.5%;而如果对经济活动不利的因素如果都叠加在一起,增长率甚至有可能降至1.5%。文章指出,当下需要思考的问题不在于中国经济是否会减速,而是减速的时间点和程度大小。本文作者供职于美联储国际金融部,本刊征得作者同意翻译并发表此文,供国内学者参考。
China’s economy has maintained rapid growth for more than 30 years. Under the background that the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing and economic growth can no longer rely on investment, what is the future economic development in China? In this paper, when the growth of the working-age population is slowed down or even started to decline, Will China still be able to spend half its GDP on investment, and will this investment become inefficient? As the rural population declines gradually, the labor force participation rate and employment rate will decline, and will the rural labor force shift more in the future? Instead of a more productive manufacturing department, go to the service department. The article believes that China’s future economic growth rate will gradually decline from the current average of 10% to 6.5% in 2030. And if the negative factors of economic activities are all together, the growth rate may even drop to 1.5%. The article points out that the question that needs to be pondered at present is not whether China’s economy will slow down or not, but rather the time and extent of its deceleration. The author works for the Federal Department of International Finance, the author of this article agreed to translate and publish the article for domestic scholars for reference.