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七月份，中国宏观经济延续了上半年的良好态势，实体经济亮点频现。汽车工业的高速增长预示着新消费热点的逐步形成和作用，带动工业加快增长；外贸出口和外资引进双星闪耀，为经济运行增色不少。然而，消费不旺和物价持续走低为经济发展投下阴影；投资增长略有回落，依靠政府开支和国债项目的模式未变；金融形势依然严峻，货币政策趋向宽松，但传导机制不畅，银行改革成为重中之重；股市“井喷”之后向何处发展成为各方瞩目的焦点。
汽车工业的出色表现堪称七月份经济运行的最大亮点，是工业增长提速的主要因素。几乎所有国产品牌车的产量均大幅增长。伴随汽车产量的大幅提高，汽车工业的效益也是各行业中表现最好的。据汽车同业协会统计，上半年全国汽车厂商平均利润率同比增长36．38％。交通运输设备行业上半年新增利润52亿元，汽车行业增加的利润占全行业新增利润将近一半。
汽车工业的火爆令许多专家和业内人士大跌眼镜，原来估计人世后汽车工业将受到严重冲击。但由于以下原因进口车对国产车没有形成太大的压力：一是国产车大幅降价。消费者持币待购的坚冰开始融化，沉寂良久的市场被激活。二是进口配额和许可证的缓冲效应。今年汽车工业进口配额是去年的四倍。但配额主要向零配件倾斜，整车进口配额许可证总量为12万辆左右。除了配额限制，许可证发放的滞后也缓解了进口压力。目前海关库存车辆因许可证滞后库满为患，积压车辆已达2．5万辆。第三，进口车经销商遭遇汇率风险，年初关税的降低使进口车价格平均降低了10％左右。6月份以来，欧元和日元都有将近10％的升值，几乎把关税下调的影响基本对冲，再加上许可证发放滞后，导致进口车价格不降反升，大多数购买者仍然青睐于国产车型。
汽车生产的高速增长，得益于新的消费“热点”的形成。按照国际经验，人均GDP达到1000美元左右，汽车就该开始进入家庭，当一个国家人均GDP达到3000至1万美元时，将进入汽车消费快速发展时期。去年我国人均GDP已达910美元左右。其中，广州市人均达到4568美元，上海市人均4500美元，北京市为3000美元，标志着我国大中城市汽车消费进入快速发展期。从宏观层面分析，中国个人轿车将会逐步形成从大城市到中等城市直至小城镇的排浪式消费，中国的轿车市场即将进入—个持续、快速增长的时期。
除了汽车工业，传统家电行业的表现也可圈可点，呈现出明显复苏迹象。我国彩电业生产、销售、出口上半年实现厂大幅增长，7月份产量更是增长70．3％。
外贸出口成为今年以来的持续亮点，7月份出口更是明显提速。在全球贸易下降的情况下，中国外贸出口的大幅增长充分体现了“人世效应”。从上半年的出口结构看，外资企业占半数以上，加工贸易更是占3／4，相对而言，国有企业加工贸易增长7．5％和一般贸易增长0.6％的速度，则显得相当缓慢。跨国公司正在把中国作为出口加工贸易基地，是驱动今年出口大幅增长的主要力量。从地区结构看，出口主要集中在东南沿海，1~7月，广东省出口占全国出口总值的36．6％；实现外贸顺差占全国贸易顺差将近一半。值得关注的是，7月份进口增长比出口增长更快，有可能成为下半年的基本态势，对于钢铁、有色金属和机械等传统产业及部分农产品形成一定冲击。由于出口高成长的主要受益者是外资企业，而进口冲击的成本主要是国有企业，地区和产业调整的任务比较艰巨。
去年以来，世界经济的格局发生微妙的变化，三大经济体陷入衰退。到目前为止，外国对美国的直接投资仍进一步放慢。据J P摩根财团东南亚金融投资部的研究，目前有近50％的全球资金集中在亚洲地区，而美国下降到40％以下，欧洲仍保持在近15％的水平，亚洲已成为新兴资金市场中心。一位联合国官员估计，目前约有1~2万亿美元的外资滞留在香港一带，准备进入中国大陆和周边地区。
在此背景下，我国外资流人明显加快。但是，我国利用外资的方式存在一个严重缺陷，主要依赖增量投资，对现有的资产存量几平没有影响。近几年国际上掀起了并购热潮，很多跨国公司对在中国并购也十分关注。去年全球的跨国投资通过并购实现的比例超过80％。而中国去年实际利用外商直接投资407亿美元，并购投资只占5％一6％，比例很小。由于缺乏相应的并购机制，外资的大量涌人加剧了现有资产存量生产能力的过剩，国有企业的生存空间显得更加拥挤。
7月份，有关外资并购的政策受到市场广泛关注。国家经贸委表示，我国利用外资将逐步从以工业为主向重点发展第三产业转变，金融领域将成为我国引进外资的重要领域。国家将加大金融、会计、律师、资产评估等市场中介服务业的引资力度，加快发展中外合资中介机构。最近，外经贸部官员透露，《外商投资并购条例》有望在今年出台。并购条例将解决外资企业并购国内企业所遇到的诸多问题，并购的对象将包括国有企业、民营企业和私有企业。与此同时，资产的评估方法正在改变，评估标准将由国内流行的账面价值转向国际通行的市场价值。
七月份的金融形势依然不容乐观，通货紧缩有增无减。从货币流动性稳步上升，企业存款明显增加的情况看，货币供应量比较宽松，但传导机制不畅，体内循环明显，增加的货币供应很大一部分又流回央行，央行第二季度货币政策执行情况报告表明，6月末金融机构超额准备金率平均6．78％，准备金率合计12．78％。目前的问题是，20％的优质客户集中了80％的贷款，主要是垄断部门和大型企业，而80％的中小企业贷款困难，结构性短缺严重。为了疏通信贷渠道，工商银行率先进行了业务创新，继推出法人账户透支业务后，又推出了支持小企业发展的八项新举措，首次制定了小企业的信用等级评定办法和信贷掌握标准，降低小企业融资“门槛”。中央银行肯定了这种做法，最近发出《关于进一步加强对有市场、有效益、有信用中小企业信贷支持的指导意见》，要求商业银行在坚持信贷原则的前提下，加大支持中小企业发展力度，制定适合中小企业的信贷评估审查制度，允许商业银行试办中小企业专利权质押贷款等信贷新业务。此举无疑有助于缓解中小企业贷款难的问题，但同时也增加了风险，实际效果有待检验。问题的关键在于，目前的金融问题不是货币政策的松紧问题，而是金融体制的问题。 应从金融市场细分，发展金融竞争，扩大金融服务，提高金融效率上做文章。
债市股市在经过六月份结构调整之后，各自呈现缩量整理的格局。债券市场风险进一步释放，价格进一步回落，整体收益率特别是长期收益曲线上移，最近中央银行减弱了正回购力度，表明市场利率已基本调整到位。股票市场在经过井喷之后，没有维持住强势格局，井喷成果回吐过半。资本市场的走弱，无疑将加大银行资金过剩的压力，维系多层次金融市场的均衡发展有利于资金分流，货币政策操作也需要把资本市场考虑在内。
今年以来，政府高层官员多次强调支持股市发展，推动银行和国有重点企业上市。监管当局不断在政策上扶持股市发展。但今年股市出现一种新的现象，市场自运行的动力明显不足，政策性利好出台，市场突发性地上涨，而大部分时间里市场选择向下突破，等待政策救市。这种情况很值得反思。我们认为，中国股市的制度性缺陷影响了股票的投资价值，仅靠出台一些技术上的政策利好不足以提高投资价值。中国股市目前存在两大制度缺陷：第一，中国的股票市场2／3的股权不流通，国有股一股独大。第二，国内资本市场与国际资本市场分割，A、B、II、N多股共存，国内市场投资成本明显高于海外。人世之后，我国股票市场规范化和与国际资本市场接轨的方向已经确定，非流通股和流通股的并轨及海内外资本市场的自由流动是明显的趋势，如何解决A股市场流通股价格偏高及市盈率偏高的问题不容回避。在新的国有企业改组上市过程中，国家将有选择地放弃控股地位，允许包括民营企业在内的其它经济成份进行控股。问题在于这一过程将在多大程度上以什么样的速度和方式进行。
Auto Production Accelerates Industrial Grow0thForeign Trade & Investment Go Up RaPidly
——An Analysis of China‘s Macro-economy in July
By Zhang Shuguang，Director of the Beijing Tianze Economics Instifute,Wang xinbo & Jin Sanlin
China‘s macro-economy in July sustained the goodmomentum of growth for the first half of the year. Therapid growth of the automobile industry heralded a gradualformation of a new hotspot in consumption and accelerated theentire industrial growth. Remarkable increases were alsowitnessed in export and foreign investment. However, stagnantconsumption and continuous price slide cast a shadow on theeconomic development. Meanwhile, the growth rate ofinvestment showed a down turn, which still relied on thegovernment expenditure and projects supported by state bonds.The month also witnessed a stern financial situation, althoughthe monetary policy tended to relax. The reform of banks hasbecome a pivotal focus, so does the orientation of the stockmarket.
The brightest spot of the economic operation in July shouldbe the outstanding performance of the auto industry, which wasa major driving force for the industrial growth as a whole. Almostall the domestic auto makers saw a remarkable increase in theirproduction. Along with the marginal increase in the car output,the auto industry showed the best economic results among allthe industrial sectors. According to statistics of the AutomobileIndustrial Association, the average profit rate of the automanufacturers nationwide in the first half of the year increasedby 36.38% over the same period of last year. The industrial sectorof transportation equipment saw an increased profit of 5.2 billionyuan in the first half of the year, of which nearly half wasattributed to the auto industry.
This came as a surprise to many specialists and industrialwatchers who had anticipated a great shock to the domestic autoindustry after China‘s accession to the World Trade Organization.The domestic automobiles did not suffer much pressure fromtheir imported counterparts due to the following reasons: 1. Asteep price cut for domestic cars, which stimulated the consumers‘desire to buy. 2. A buffer zone effect of the import quota andpermit. The import quota of cars quadrupled the figure of lastyear, yet it was tilted to the parts and components. In comparison,only 12,000 assembled cars were to be imported under thepermits. This plus the time-consuming issuance of the permit,alleviated the import pressure on domestically produced cars.So far a stock of 25,000 imported cars were detained at thecustoms due to the slow issuance of permits. 3. Exchange raterisks for import car dealers. Early this year the lowered tariffcaused a 10% cut in the price of imported cars, but the revaluedEuro and Japanese Yen by nearly 10% since June almost offsetthe lowered tariff. This, plus the slow issuance of import permits,resulted in an increase in the price of imported cars, turning mostcar buyers to domestic makes.
The rapid growth of auto industry has benefited from theformation of a new hotspot in consumption. International practicehas shown that automobiles begin to enter individual familieswhen a country‘s average per capita GDP reaches USS1,000,and a fast growth in car consumption is witnessed when the percapita GDP reaches somewhere between US$3,000 andUSS 10,000. Last year China‘s per capita GDP averaged aroundUS$910, while the per capita GDP hit US$4,568 in Guangzhou,US$4,500 in Shanghai and US$3,000 in Beijing. This indicatesthat some of the large and medium-sizedcities in China have entered the stage offast growth in car consumption.
A similar phenomenon was observedin production and marketing of traditionalfamily electrical appliances. There was alimited growth in the production, sale andimport of color TV sets in the first half ofthe year, while the production in Julyincreased further by 70.3%.
Export also increased rapidly in July.In the first half of the year, foreign-fundedenterprises accounted for more than half ofthe country‘s export volume, of whichprocessing trade accounted for threefourths. Relatively speaking, the processingtrade and general trade undertaken by state-owned enterprises grew by 7.5% and 0.6%respectively, which appeared rather slow.Transnational corporations are taking Chinaas a world base for manufacturing andexport-oriented processing, which is amajor force for the marginal increase inexport this year. The southeastern coastal areas furnished mostof the export, with Guangdong alone accounting for 36.6% ofthe nation‘s total export volume from January to July. What meritsspecial mention is the fact that the import growth rate in Julysurpassed that of the export, which may affect steel, non-ferrousmetal and machinery industries and some agricultural products.On the other hand, beneficiaries of the high increase in exportare mainly foreign-funded enterprises, while the cost of importimpact is mainly shouldered by state-owned enterprises.
Some studies show that about half of the global fundsconcentrate in Asia, which has become a new center of capitalmarket. It is estimated that some US$1,000-2,000 billion inforeign capital is detained in the Hong Kong area and is ready toenter China‘s mainland and its surrounding areas.
In this context the influx of foreign capitals to China isobviously quickened. But there is a serious flaw in the mode ofChina‘s application of foreign capital, which is manifested in itsreliance on incremental investment. This has but little impact onthe existent capital stock. Many transnational corporations areinterested in mergers and acquisitions in China. Last year, morethan 80% of the global transnational investment was realizedvia mergers and acquisitions, whereas mergers and acquisitionsaccounted for only 5-6% of China‘s actually realized directforeign investment of US$40.7 billion in 2001. Due to the absenceof a mechanism for mergers and acquisitions, the avalanchedthe current capital stock, further squeezing the survival spacefor the state-owned enterprises.
In July, the State Economic and Trade Commission indicatedthat China would shift the focus of its usage of foreign capitalsfrom industry to the service industry, and that banking wouldbecome an important sector to draw foreign investment. The statewould boost the investment in the sectors that serve as intermediaryagencies for the market, such as banks, accounting offices, lawfirms and assets appraisal agencies, and encourage the developmentof Sino-foreign joint venture intermediary agencies. Officials of‘the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation haverecently revealed that the Regulations Concerning ForeignInvestment, Mergers and Acquisitions are hopeful to come outwithin the year. The regulations are expected to solve manyproblems concerning foreign-funded enterprises‘ mergers andacquisitions of domestic enterprises. The targets of mergers andacquisitions will include state-owned enterprises, non-stateenterprises and private enterprises. Meanwhile, the method of assetappraisal is being transformed, in such a way as to be in conformitywith the international practice.
With aggravated deflation, the financial situation in Julywas still not optimistic. The steady growth in monetary mobilityand enterprises‘ deposits indicated a relax in money supply, yetmuch of the increased money supply circulated back to the centralbank. The implementation report on the monetary policy for thesecond quarter provided by the central bank showed that at theend of June the extra preparatory funding rate of the banksaveraged at 6.78%, with the gross preparatory funding rate at12.78%. The question is that 20% of the quality clients, who aremainly monopolized departments and large-sized enterprises, had80% of the loans, while 80% of the small- and medium-sizedenterprises could hardly get a loan. In order to clear things up,the Industrial and Commercial Bank took the lead in innovationby putting up eight new measures to support the development ofsmall- and medium-sized enterprises. This followed its promotionof overdrawn accounts for legal persons, which lowered thethreshold for small enterprises to raise fund. The move hassecured support from the central bank, which has recently issuedthe Guideline on Further Enhancing the Credit Support for Smalland Medium-Sized Enterprises Enjoying Markets, GoodEconomic Results and Credibility. The guideline asks commercialbanks to boost their support for small and medium-sizedenterprises and set up the kind of credit appraisal and reviewingsystems that suit the specific conditions of such enterprises.Besides, it allow commercial banks to operate some new creditbusinesses - for example, allowing, on a trial basis, small andmedium-sized enterprises to put their patent rights as mortgageagainst the loans they are to borrow. This will certainly makethings easier for small and medium-sized enterprises to get loans,but it also adds risks, so the practical effect remains to be seen.
Since the beginning of this year high-ranking officials of thegovernment have time and again reaffirmed support for thedevelopment of stock markets, with a view to helping banks andkey state-owned enterprises get listed. The supervision authoritieshave published a series of policies to boost development of thedomestic stock markets. Yet a new phenomenon is witnessed inthe stock market this year, that is, the market itself lacks themotivation to operate on its own. When the favorable policieswere put up, the market would show a sudden rise. After that,however, the market tended to slide down, waiting for the rescueby policies. This is worth our attention. We think that the systematicflaws of China‘s stock market have affected the investment valuesof the stocks. The two major systematic flaws of China‘s stockmarket at present are: One. Two thirds of the shareholding rightsin China‘s stock market are not circulated, with the state-ownedstocks dominating the market. Two. The domestic capital marketis separate from the international capital market, with A, B, H, Nshares co-existing, and the domestic market investment costobviously higher than overseas market investment cost. AfterChina‘s entry to WTO, the orientation of the country‘sstandardization of its stock market according to internationalpractice is determined, the question of rather high price of thestocks circulated in the A-share market cannot be bypassed.
汽车工业的出色表现堪称七月份经济运行的最大亮点，是工业增长提速的主要因素。几乎所有国产品牌车的产量均大幅增长。伴随汽车产量的大幅提高，汽车工业的效益也是各行业中表现最好的。据汽车同业协会统计，上半年全国汽车厂商平均利润率同比增长36．38％。交通运输设备行业上半年新增利润52亿元，汽车行业增加的利润占全行业新增利润将近一半。
汽车工业的火爆令许多专家和业内人士大跌眼镜，原来估计人世后汽车工业将受到严重冲击。但由于以下原因进口车对国产车没有形成太大的压力：一是国产车大幅降价。消费者持币待购的坚冰开始融化，沉寂良久的市场被激活。二是进口配额和许可证的缓冲效应。今年汽车工业进口配额是去年的四倍。但配额主要向零配件倾斜，整车进口配额许可证总量为12万辆左右。除了配额限制，许可证发放的滞后也缓解了进口压力。目前海关库存车辆因许可证滞后库满为患，积压车辆已达2．5万辆。第三，进口车经销商遭遇汇率风险，年初关税的降低使进口车价格平均降低了10％左右。6月份以来，欧元和日元都有将近10％的升值，几乎把关税下调的影响基本对冲，再加上许可证发放滞后，导致进口车价格不降反升，大多数购买者仍然青睐于国产车型。
汽车生产的高速增长，得益于新的消费“热点”的形成。按照国际经验，人均GDP达到1000美元左右，汽车就该开始进入家庭，当一个国家人均GDP达到3000至1万美元时，将进入汽车消费快速发展时期。去年我国人均GDP已达910美元左右。其中，广州市人均达到4568美元，上海市人均4500美元，北京市为3000美元，标志着我国大中城市汽车消费进入快速发展期。从宏观层面分析，中国个人轿车将会逐步形成从大城市到中等城市直至小城镇的排浪式消费，中国的轿车市场即将进入—个持续、快速增长的时期。
除了汽车工业，传统家电行业的表现也可圈可点，呈现出明显复苏迹象。我国彩电业生产、销售、出口上半年实现厂大幅增长，7月份产量更是增长70．3％。
外贸出口成为今年以来的持续亮点，7月份出口更是明显提速。在全球贸易下降的情况下，中国外贸出口的大幅增长充分体现了“人世效应”。从上半年的出口结构看，外资企业占半数以上，加工贸易更是占3／4，相对而言，国有企业加工贸易增长7．5％和一般贸易增长0.6％的速度，则显得相当缓慢。跨国公司正在把中国作为出口加工贸易基地，是驱动今年出口大幅增长的主要力量。从地区结构看，出口主要集中在东南沿海，1~7月，广东省出口占全国出口总值的36．6％；实现外贸顺差占全国贸易顺差将近一半。值得关注的是，7月份进口增长比出口增长更快，有可能成为下半年的基本态势，对于钢铁、有色金属和机械等传统产业及部分农产品形成一定冲击。由于出口高成长的主要受益者是外资企业，而进口冲击的成本主要是国有企业，地区和产业调整的任务比较艰巨。
去年以来，世界经济的格局发生微妙的变化，三大经济体陷入衰退。到目前为止，外国对美国的直接投资仍进一步放慢。据J P摩根财团东南亚金融投资部的研究，目前有近50％的全球资金集中在亚洲地区，而美国下降到40％以下，欧洲仍保持在近15％的水平，亚洲已成为新兴资金市场中心。一位联合国官员估计，目前约有1~2万亿美元的外资滞留在香港一带，准备进入中国大陆和周边地区。
在此背景下，我国外资流人明显加快。但是，我国利用外资的方式存在一个严重缺陷，主要依赖增量投资，对现有的资产存量几平没有影响。近几年国际上掀起了并购热潮，很多跨国公司对在中国并购也十分关注。去年全球的跨国投资通过并购实现的比例超过80％。而中国去年实际利用外商直接投资407亿美元，并购投资只占5％一6％，比例很小。由于缺乏相应的并购机制，外资的大量涌人加剧了现有资产存量生产能力的过剩，国有企业的生存空间显得更加拥挤。
7月份，有关外资并购的政策受到市场广泛关注。国家经贸委表示，我国利用外资将逐步从以工业为主向重点发展第三产业转变，金融领域将成为我国引进外资的重要领域。国家将加大金融、会计、律师、资产评估等市场中介服务业的引资力度，加快发展中外合资中介机构。最近，外经贸部官员透露，《外商投资并购条例》有望在今年出台。并购条例将解决外资企业并购国内企业所遇到的诸多问题，并购的对象将包括国有企业、民营企业和私有企业。与此同时，资产的评估方法正在改变，评估标准将由国内流行的账面价值转向国际通行的市场价值。
七月份的金融形势依然不容乐观，通货紧缩有增无减。从货币流动性稳步上升，企业存款明显增加的情况看，货币供应量比较宽松，但传导机制不畅，体内循环明显，增加的货币供应很大一部分又流回央行，央行第二季度货币政策执行情况报告表明，6月末金融机构超额准备金率平均6．78％，准备金率合计12．78％。目前的问题是，20％的优质客户集中了80％的贷款，主要是垄断部门和大型企业，而80％的中小企业贷款困难，结构性短缺严重。为了疏通信贷渠道，工商银行率先进行了业务创新，继推出法人账户透支业务后，又推出了支持小企业发展的八项新举措，首次制定了小企业的信用等级评定办法和信贷掌握标准，降低小企业融资“门槛”。中央银行肯定了这种做法，最近发出《关于进一步加强对有市场、有效益、有信用中小企业信贷支持的指导意见》，要求商业银行在坚持信贷原则的前提下，加大支持中小企业发展力度，制定适合中小企业的信贷评估审查制度，允许商业银行试办中小企业专利权质押贷款等信贷新业务。此举无疑有助于缓解中小企业贷款难的问题，但同时也增加了风险，实际效果有待检验。问题的关键在于，目前的金融问题不是货币政策的松紧问题，而是金融体制的问题。 应从金融市场细分，发展金融竞争，扩大金融服务，提高金融效率上做文章。
债市股市在经过六月份结构调整之后，各自呈现缩量整理的格局。债券市场风险进一步释放，价格进一步回落，整体收益率特别是长期收益曲线上移，最近中央银行减弱了正回购力度，表明市场利率已基本调整到位。股票市场在经过井喷之后，没有维持住强势格局，井喷成果回吐过半。资本市场的走弱，无疑将加大银行资金过剩的压力，维系多层次金融市场的均衡发展有利于资金分流，货币政策操作也需要把资本市场考虑在内。
今年以来，政府高层官员多次强调支持股市发展，推动银行和国有重点企业上市。监管当局不断在政策上扶持股市发展。但今年股市出现一种新的现象，市场自运行的动力明显不足，政策性利好出台，市场突发性地上涨，而大部分时间里市场选择向下突破，等待政策救市。这种情况很值得反思。我们认为，中国股市的制度性缺陷影响了股票的投资价值，仅靠出台一些技术上的政策利好不足以提高投资价值。中国股市目前存在两大制度缺陷：第一，中国的股票市场2／3的股权不流通，国有股一股独大。第二，国内资本市场与国际资本市场分割，A、B、II、N多股共存，国内市场投资成本明显高于海外。人世之后，我国股票市场规范化和与国际资本市场接轨的方向已经确定，非流通股和流通股的并轨及海内外资本市场的自由流动是明显的趋势，如何解决A股市场流通股价格偏高及市盈率偏高的问题不容回避。在新的国有企业改组上市过程中，国家将有选择地放弃控股地位，允许包括民营企业在内的其它经济成份进行控股。问题在于这一过程将在多大程度上以什么样的速度和方式进行。
Auto Production Accelerates Industrial Grow0thForeign Trade & Investment Go Up RaPidly
——An Analysis of China‘s Macro-economy in July
By Zhang Shuguang，Director of the Beijing Tianze Economics Instifute,Wang xinbo & Jin Sanlin
China‘s macro-economy in July sustained the goodmomentum of growth for the first half of the year. Therapid growth of the automobile industry heralded a gradualformation of a new hotspot in consumption and accelerated theentire industrial growth. Remarkable increases were alsowitnessed in export and foreign investment. However, stagnantconsumption and continuous price slide cast a shadow on theeconomic development. Meanwhile, the growth rate ofinvestment showed a down turn, which still relied on thegovernment expenditure and projects supported by state bonds.The month also witnessed a stern financial situation, althoughthe monetary policy tended to relax. The reform of banks hasbecome a pivotal focus, so does the orientation of the stockmarket.
The brightest spot of the economic operation in July shouldbe the outstanding performance of the auto industry, which wasa major driving force for the industrial growth as a whole. Almostall the domestic auto makers saw a remarkable increase in theirproduction. Along with the marginal increase in the car output,the auto industry showed the best economic results among allthe industrial sectors. According to statistics of the AutomobileIndustrial Association, the average profit rate of the automanufacturers nationwide in the first half of the year increasedby 36.38% over the same period of last year. The industrial sectorof transportation equipment saw an increased profit of 5.2 billionyuan in the first half of the year, of which nearly half wasattributed to the auto industry.
This came as a surprise to many specialists and industrialwatchers who had anticipated a great shock to the domestic autoindustry after China‘s accession to the World Trade Organization.The domestic automobiles did not suffer much pressure fromtheir imported counterparts due to the following reasons: 1. Asteep price cut for domestic cars, which stimulated the consumers‘desire to buy. 2. A buffer zone effect of the import quota andpermit. The import quota of cars quadrupled the figure of lastyear, yet it was tilted to the parts and components. In comparison,only 12,000 assembled cars were to be imported under thepermits. This plus the time-consuming issuance of the permit,alleviated the import pressure on domestically produced cars.So far a stock of 25,000 imported cars were detained at thecustoms due to the slow issuance of permits. 3. Exchange raterisks for import car dealers. Early this year the lowered tariffcaused a 10% cut in the price of imported cars, but the revaluedEuro and Japanese Yen by nearly 10% since June almost offsetthe lowered tariff. This, plus the slow issuance of import permits,resulted in an increase in the price of imported cars, turning mostcar buyers to domestic makes.
The rapid growth of auto industry has benefited from theformation of a new hotspot in consumption. International practicehas shown that automobiles begin to enter individual familieswhen a country‘s average per capita GDP reaches USS1,000,and a fast growth in car consumption is witnessed when the percapita GDP reaches somewhere between US$3,000 andUSS 10,000. Last year China‘s per capita GDP averaged aroundUS$910, while the per capita GDP hit US$4,568 in Guangzhou,US$4,500 in Shanghai and US$3,000 in Beijing. This indicatesthat some of the large and medium-sizedcities in China have entered the stage offast growth in car consumption.
A similar phenomenon was observedin production and marketing of traditionalfamily electrical appliances. There was alimited growth in the production, sale andimport of color TV sets in the first half ofthe year, while the production in Julyincreased further by 70.3%.
Export also increased rapidly in July.In the first half of the year, foreign-fundedenterprises accounted for more than half ofthe country‘s export volume, of whichprocessing trade accounted for threefourths. Relatively speaking, the processingtrade and general trade undertaken by state-owned enterprises grew by 7.5% and 0.6%respectively, which appeared rather slow.Transnational corporations are taking Chinaas a world base for manufacturing andexport-oriented processing, which is amajor force for the marginal increase inexport this year. The southeastern coastal areas furnished mostof the export, with Guangdong alone accounting for 36.6% ofthe nation‘s total export volume from January to July. What meritsspecial mention is the fact that the import growth rate in Julysurpassed that of the export, which may affect steel, non-ferrousmetal and machinery industries and some agricultural products.On the other hand, beneficiaries of the high increase in exportare mainly foreign-funded enterprises, while the cost of importimpact is mainly shouldered by state-owned enterprises.
Some studies show that about half of the global fundsconcentrate in Asia, which has become a new center of capitalmarket. It is estimated that some US$1,000-2,000 billion inforeign capital is detained in the Hong Kong area and is ready toenter China‘s mainland and its surrounding areas.
In this context the influx of foreign capitals to China isobviously quickened. But there is a serious flaw in the mode ofChina‘s application of foreign capital, which is manifested in itsreliance on incremental investment. This has but little impact onthe existent capital stock. Many transnational corporations areinterested in mergers and acquisitions in China. Last year, morethan 80% of the global transnational investment was realizedvia mergers and acquisitions, whereas mergers and acquisitionsaccounted for only 5-6% of China‘s actually realized directforeign investment of US$40.7 billion in 2001. Due to the absenceof a mechanism for mergers and acquisitions, the avalanchedthe current capital stock, further squeezing the survival spacefor the state-owned enterprises.
In July, the State Economic and Trade Commission indicatedthat China would shift the focus of its usage of foreign capitalsfrom industry to the service industry, and that banking wouldbecome an important sector to draw foreign investment. The statewould boost the investment in the sectors that serve as intermediaryagencies for the market, such as banks, accounting offices, lawfirms and assets appraisal agencies, and encourage the developmentof Sino-foreign joint venture intermediary agencies. Officials of‘the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation haverecently revealed that the Regulations Concerning ForeignInvestment, Mergers and Acquisitions are hopeful to come outwithin the year. The regulations are expected to solve manyproblems concerning foreign-funded enterprises‘ mergers andacquisitions of domestic enterprises. The targets of mergers andacquisitions will include state-owned enterprises, non-stateenterprises and private enterprises. Meanwhile, the method of assetappraisal is being transformed, in such a way as to be in conformitywith the international practice.
With aggravated deflation, the financial situation in Julywas still not optimistic. The steady growth in monetary mobilityand enterprises‘ deposits indicated a relax in money supply, yetmuch of the increased money supply circulated back to the centralbank. The implementation report on the monetary policy for thesecond quarter provided by the central bank showed that at theend of June the extra preparatory funding rate of the banksaveraged at 6.78%, with the gross preparatory funding rate at12.78%. The question is that 20% of the quality clients, who aremainly monopolized departments and large-sized enterprises, had80% of the loans, while 80% of the small- and medium-sizedenterprises could hardly get a loan. In order to clear things up,the Industrial and Commercial Bank took the lead in innovationby putting up eight new measures to support the development ofsmall- and medium-sized enterprises. This followed its promotionof overdrawn accounts for legal persons, which lowered thethreshold for small enterprises to raise fund. The move hassecured support from the central bank, which has recently issuedthe Guideline on Further Enhancing the Credit Support for Smalland Medium-Sized Enterprises Enjoying Markets, GoodEconomic Results and Credibility. The guideline asks commercialbanks to boost their support for small and medium-sizedenterprises and set up the kind of credit appraisal and reviewingsystems that suit the specific conditions of such enterprises.Besides, it allow commercial banks to operate some new creditbusinesses - for example, allowing, on a trial basis, small andmedium-sized enterprises to put their patent rights as mortgageagainst the loans they are to borrow. This will certainly makethings easier for small and medium-sized enterprises to get loans,but it also adds risks, so the practical effect remains to be seen.
Since the beginning of this year high-ranking officials of thegovernment have time and again reaffirmed support for thedevelopment of stock markets, with a view to helping banks andkey state-owned enterprises get listed. The supervision authoritieshave published a series of policies to boost development of thedomestic stock markets. Yet a new phenomenon is witnessed inthe stock market this year, that is, the market itself lacks themotivation to operate on its own. When the favorable policieswere put up, the market would show a sudden rise. After that,however, the market tended to slide down, waiting for the rescueby policies. This is worth our attention. We think that the systematicflaws of China‘s stock market have affected the investment valuesof the stocks. The two major systematic flaws of China‘s stockmarket at present are: One. Two thirds of the shareholding rightsin China‘s stock market are not circulated, with the state-ownedstocks dominating the market. Two. The domestic capital marketis separate from the international capital market, with A, B, H, Nshares co-existing, and the domestic market investment costobviously higher than overseas market investment cost. AfterChina‘s entry to WTO, the orientation of the country‘sstandardization of its stock market according to internationalpractice is determined, the question of rather high price of thestocks circulated in the A-share market cannot be bypassed.