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单一时间序列单位根检验表明,东亚与东南亚诸国或地区中几乎任一国的货币与美元之间的真实汇率在1970～2003年这一时期内都不是稳定的;而单一时间序列协整关系检验表明,这些国家或地区中几乎任一国的货币与美元之间的名义汇率与相应的相对价格水平之间在所考察的时期内均不存在协整关联性。另一方面,面板数据单位根检验实证分析结果表明,东亚诸国甚至于东亚与东南亚诸国或地区作为一个整体,其货币与美元之间的真实汇率在所考察的时期内并非是稳定的;而考虑到相关宏观经济变量之间的样本关联性的面板数据协整关系检验实证分析结果则表明,东亚诸国甚至于东亚与东南亚诸国或地区作为一个整体,其货币与美元之间的名义汇率与相应的相对价格水平之间在所考察的时期内并不存在稳定的协整关联性。由此推知,时间序列变量的相对跨度并非检验购买力平价的一个决定性因素,而长期购买力平价本质上可以被视为内生经济收敛的一种结果。实证分析还表明,时间趋势并非相关名义宏观经济变量之间的长期内在关系中的一个关键因素。由此可知,若时间趋势构成了某一特定宏观经济变量的长期走势的一个显著因素,则此变量必定包含有某种真实的成分。
The unit root test of a single time series shows that the real exchange rate between the currencies of almost any country in East Asia and Southeast Asian countries or regions is not stable during the period from 1970 to 2003. The single time series cointegration Tests show that there is no cointegration relationship between the nominal exchange rate between the currencies of any of these countries and the U.S. dollar and the relative relative price levels over the period under consideration. On the other hand, the empirical analysis of the unit root test of panel data shows that East Asia and even Southeast Asia countries or regions as a whole, the real exchange rate between the currency and the United States dollar is not stable in the period under consideration; The empirical analysis of panel data cointegration test, which takes into account the sample correlations between relevant macroeconomic variables, shows that East Asian countries and even Southeast Asian countries or regions as a whole, the name between the currency and the dollar There is no consistent cointegration relationship between the exchange rate and the corresponding relative price level over the period examined. From this, it can be inferred that the relative span of the time series variables is not a determinant of PPP, and long term PPP can essentially be regarded as a result of endogenous economic convergence. Empirical analysis also shows that the time trend is not a key factor in the long-term internal relations between the nominal macroeconomic variables. From this we can see that if the time trend constitutes a significant factor in the long-term trend of a particular macroeconomic variable, the variable must contain some true element.