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本文基于技术异质性的多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,采用WIOD提供的数据计算1995-2011年中国对外贸易隐含碳排放量,从地区和行业两个维度来分析贸易隐含碳排放的结构特征,并通过结构分解分析(SDA)方法考察中国出口隐含碳排放增长的影响因素。研究表明,中国对外贸易隐含碳排放的地区分布较为集中,出口隐含碳排放主要集中于美国、日本、韩国等地区,进口隐含碳排放则集中于韩国、中国台湾、俄罗斯等地区;贸易隐含碳排放主要集中在重制造业、轻制造业、能源工业等工业行业,仅能源工业和农业的净出口隐含碳排放量为负;规模效应对出口隐含碳排放增长起到了主导的正效应,技术效应有利于抑制出口隐含碳排放增长,但结构效应并未发挥出应有的负效应。中国未来在贸易增长的趋势下,有利于实现碳减排目标的途径包括调整进出口贸易结构、推进雁阵式产业升级、发挥地区合作机制等。
Based on the multi-region input-output (MRIO) model based on technological heterogeneity, this paper uses the data provided by WIOD to calculate the implicit carbon emissions of China’s foreign trade from 1995 to 2011, and analyzes the trade implied carbon emissions from both the regional and industry dimensions The structural characteristics of China’s exports were also investigated by structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Research shows that China’s foreign trade implies a relatively concentrated distribution of implied carbon emissions. Implicit carbon emissions from exports are mainly concentrated in the United States, Japan, South Korea and other regions. Imported implicit carbon emissions are concentrated in South Korea, Taiwan, Russia and other regions. Trade Implicit carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the heavy industry, light manufacturing, energy industry and other industrial sectors, only the net export of energy industry and agriculture implied negative carbon emissions; scale effect on the export of carbon emissions growth has played a dominant Positive effects and technical effects are conducive to curbing the growth of export-implied carbon emissions, but the structural effects have not exerted the necessary negative effects. In the future, with the trend of trade growth in China, the ways conducive to achieving the goal of reducing carbon emissions include adjusting the structure of import and export trade, promoting Yan Ge formation’s industrial upgrading and bringing into play the regional cooperation mechanism.