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具有随机波动特性的波浪发电系统并网运行会对电力系统的安全稳定运行产生重要的影响。而有效地预测波浪发电系统的输出功率,对于复杂电网的调度和控制具有重要的作用,有利于电网消纳具有随机波动特性的波浪发电系统的电能。以基于阿基米德波能装置的波浪发电系统为例,首先建立了从波面数据到功率的完整简化模型;其次运用时间序列法对实测的海面波浪数据进行预测分析;最后将预测结果代入所建模型中,得到输出功率的预测值。仿真分析和结果验证了预测方法的有效性。
The grid-connected operation of a wave power generation system with random fluctuations will have a significant impact on the safe and stable operation of the power system. The effective prediction of the output power of a wave power generation system plays an important role in the scheduling and control of a complex power grid, which is beneficial to the power grid to dissipate the power of a wave power generation system with random fluctuations. Taking the wave power generation system based on Archimedean wave energy device as an example, a complete and simplified model of wave data from power to power is established firstly. Secondly, the time series method is used to predict and analyze the measured ocean wave data. Finally, In the model, the predicted output power is obtained. Simulation analysis and results verify the effectiveness of the forecasting method.