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国际垂直专业化分工的发展及其引发的中间产品贸易的盛行可能通过生产成本的变化抵消人民币升值对出口价格的传递效应,进而导致汇率的不完全传递。本文在汇率传递模型的基础上引入中国参与国际分工程度的VSS指标,并通过VAR模型比较了1994-2010年间垂直专业化分工模式下的出口收入与传统分工模式下的出口收入对人民币实际汇率的敏感系数,得出的结论是:相比传统分工模式,垂直专业化模式下出口收入对汇率波动表现得更为迟钝,垂直专业化分工具有弱化汇率出口传递弹性的潜在效应。据此,本文认为中国的汇率悖论在某种程度上是国际分工的结果,在国际生产分工不断深化的背景下,试图利用汇率手段来调节国际收支的政策效果将被弱化。
The development of the international vertical specialization and the prevalence of the trade of intermediate products may offset the transmission effect of the appreciation of the renminbi on the export price through the change of the production cost and lead to the incomplete transfer of the exchange rate. Based on the model of exchange rate transfer, this paper introduces the VSS index of China’s participation in the international division of labor, and compares the export revenue under the vertical specialization in 1994-2010 with the VAR under the traditional division of labor. Sensitivity coefficient. The conclusion is: compared with the traditional division of labor, the export specialization in the vertical specialization mode is more sluggish to the exchange rate fluctuation, and the vertical specialization has the potential effect of weakening the elasticity of the exchange rate export. Accordingly, this paper argues that China’s exchange rate paradox is to some extent the result of international division of labor. Under the background of deepening the division of labor in international production, the policy effect of trying to adjust the balance of payments with exchange rate instruments will be weakened.