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本文运用1994-2015年省级面板数据从时间及区域差异性两个层面出发,基于平滑转移面板向量自回归(PSTVAR)模型考察了财政分权对政府支出乘数的影响,实证结果表明,1994-2007年期间东、中、西部地区财政分权对短期及长期政府支出乘数均为显著的促进作用;2008-2015年期间,财政分权对东部地区短期、长期政府支出乘数及西部地区长期政府支出乘数均表现为抑制作用,虽然对中部地区短期、长期政府支出乘数及西部地区长期政府支出乘数仍然为促进作用,但是相比1994-2007年期间,2008-2015年期间的促进效果变弱。
This paper uses the provincial panel data from 1994 to 2015 from two aspects of time and regional differences. Based on the smooth transition panel vector autoregressive (PSTVAR) model, the author studies the impact of fiscal decentralization on the government expenditure multiplier. The empirical results show that in 1994 - The fiscal decentralization in the eastern, central and western regions of China contributed significantly to the short-term and long-term government expenditure multipliers during 2007-2015. From fiscal 2008-2015, the fiscal decentralization has made a significant contribution to the short-term and long-term government expenditure multipliers in the eastern region and the western region Although the long-term government expenditure multiplier appears to be a deterrent, although the short-term and long-term government expenditure multipliers in the central region and the long-term government expenditure multiplier in the western region can still play a catalytic role, compared with the period 1994-2007 and 2008-2015 Promote the effect weakened.