论文部分内容阅读
利用自然正交函数(EOF)揭示中国各省份能源消费碳排放量变动的时空特征,借助地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析了碳排放量驱动因素的空间分布状况.研究结果表明:中国省域能源消费碳排放量整体处于增长状态,但其增长速度有减缓趋势;EOF第一模态结果显示,碳排放量以四川省为中心向南北方向扩散,低值区集中分布在西北地区和珠三角地区;第二模态结果显示,碳排放量增长速度表现出西南地区和东南沿海地区较快,而中部省份碳排放量增长速度较慢的态势.碳排放量影响因素的重要程度由大到小依次为:总人口变化量、人均GDP变化量、城镇化率变化量、二产比重变化量、贸易开放程度变化量和能源消耗强度变化量,其中,总人口变化量的影响程度最为剧烈,每当总人口变化1%时,碳排放量相应地会变化0.5358%.
Using the natural orthogonal function (EOF) to reveal the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions from energy consumption in various provinces in China, the spatial distribution of carbon emission drivers was analyzed by using geo-weighted regression model (GWR). The results show that: As a whole, the emission of carbon was in the growth state, but its growth rate slowed down. The first mode of EOF showed that the carbon emissions diffused in the north and south direction mainly in Sichuan Province, while the low value areas concentrated in the northwest and the Pearl River Delta The results of the second modal analysis show that the growth rate of carbon emissions shows a relatively rapid growth rate in southwestern China and the southeast coastal areas while the growth rate of carbon emissions in the central provinces is relatively slow.The importance of the carbon emission factors in descending order As follows: total population change, per capita GDP change, urbanization rate change, second generation proportion change, trade open degree change and energy consumption intensity change, of which the impact of the total population change is the most dramatic, whenever When the total population changes by 1%, the carbon emission will change by 0.5358% accordingly.