论文部分内容阅读
本文报导了山东省自发现克山病流行以来,60年代初及70年代发生两流次行,32年间共发现克山病人4207例。第一次流行1961年为高发年,发病率2.60/万,第二次流行1976年为高发年,发病率0.84/万,1980年后发病率显著减少,发病率在0.05/万以下,近12年病情稳定。应用灰色动态模型[GM(1,1)模型],对2000年发病情况进行了预测,今后9年间发病率在0.0004/万以下,再次暴发流行的可能性极小。
This article reports the occurrence of spontaneous Discovery Keshan disease in Shandong Province since the early 60s and 70s occurred in two separate trips, 32 years, Keshan patients were found in 4207 cases. The first epidemic in 1961 for the high incidence of the year, the incidence of 2.60 / million, the second popular in 1976 for the high incidence of the year, the incidence of 0.84 / million, after 1980, a significant reduction in the incidence of morbidity below 0.05 / million, nearly 12 Years in stable condition. Applying the gray dynamic model [GM (1,1) model], the incidence of the disease in 2000 was predicted, with the incidence of less than 0.0004 / million in the next 9 years.