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讨论了复杂系统的Bayes可靠性评估。首先 ,对各种不同分布类型的单元进行Bayes可靠性分析 ;其次利用最大熵方法把单元可靠性信息进行综合 ,得到系统可靠性的验前分布 ;最后根据Bayes定理 ,利用系统可靠性试验信息来更新系统可靠性的验前分布得到系统可靠性的验后分布 ,依据此验后分布对系统可靠性进行评估。仿真算例说明了评估方法的合理性
The Bayesian reliability evaluation of complex systems is discussed. Firstly, Bayesian reliability analysis is made for units of different distribution types. Secondly, the maximum reliability entropy method is used to synthesize unit reliability information to obtain the pre-test distribution of system reliability. Finally, according to the Bayes theorem, the system reliability test information The pre-test distribution of system reliability is updated to obtain the post-test distribution of system reliability, and the system reliability is evaluated based on the post-test distribution. The simulation example shows the rationality of the evaluation method