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在模型验证的基础上,利用ORYZA2000模型分析表明,北京地区旱稻产量潜力30年平均为8573kghm-2,变化范围为6747～11278kghm-2,年际间变异系数为16.3%。而雨养产量的多年平均值为4084kghm-2,变化范围223～8018kghm-2,年际间的变异系数高达51.1%。产量潜力与雨养产量之差表明北京地区旱稻尚有一定的增产潜力。旱稻全生育期需水量的多年平均值为713mm,年际间变异为8.5%。其中,出苗—穗分化阶段由于持续时间长,需水量最大,占全生育期的49.7%。全生育期的平均需水强度为5.3mmd-1,需水强度最大的时期为穗分化—开花阶段,平均为5.5mmd-1。北京地区生育期内的降水量不能完全满足旱稻的需水要求,50%的年份水分亏缺量在250mm以上,水分亏缺量多年平均值为226mm,年际间变异较大,变异系数高达81.4%。
Based on the model validation, the ORYZA2000 model analysis showed that the average yield potential of upland rice in Beijing in the past 30 years was 8573 kghm-2, with a variation range of 6747-11278 kghm-2, with an annual variation coefficient of 16.3%. However, the annual average rainfall output was 4084 kghm-2, with a variation range of 223-8012 kghm-2, with an annual variation coefficient of 51.1%. The difference between yield potential and rainfed yield shows that the upland potential of upland rice in Beijing still has some potential. The average annual water requirement of Upland rice was 713 mm, with an annual variation of 8.5%. Among them, emergence - spike differentiation stage due to the long duration, the largest water demand, accounting for 49.7% of the whole growth period. The average water requirement during the whole growth period was 5.3 mmd-1, and the stage with the highest water requirement was the stage of spike differentiation and flowering with an average of 5.5 mmd-1. The precipitation in the growing season in Beijing can not fully meet the water requirements of Upland rice. The annual water deficit in 50% of the years is above 250mm and the average annual water deficit amount is 226mm, with a large variation in the interannual variability of 81.4 %.