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文章从中国宏观政策现实出发,分析了预期形成机制对宏观政策搭配及通胀预期管理的影响。研究发现,基于学习型预期的动态随机一般均衡模型不仅能刻画预期通胀与实际通胀之间的趋势一致性与持续偏离,还能反映中国人民银行所公布的物价预期指数和国家统计局所公布的消费者预期指数的变化情况。从通胀预期管理角度看,宏观政策搭配不仅受基本面因素制约,还受公众预期形成机制的显著影响,并且应适时地由传统的“一松一紧”模式转变为“双松”或“双紧”模式。在当前形势下,宏观政策应侧重于“精确制导式”的定向调控,加大经济体制改革力度,完善经济供给面,以配合总需求并锁定政策目标。同时,通过积极沟通,塑造和稳定公众对宏观政策的预期,扩大政策调控空间,以实现经济平稳增长。
Based on the reality of China’s macroeconomic policy, the article analyzes the impact of the expected formation mechanism on macroeconomic policies and the management of inflationary expectations. The study finds that the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on learning expectation can not only depict the trend consistency and persistent deviation between expected inflation and real inflation but also reflect the price expectation index published by People’s Bank of China and the consumption announced by National Bureau of Statistics Expected index changes. From the perspective of inflation expectancy management, the macro-policy mix is not only constrained by fundamental factors, but also significantly affected by the public anticipatory formation mechanism, and should be transformed from the traditional “one loose and one tight” model into a “double loose” “Or” double tight “mode. Under the current circumstances, macroeconomic policies should focus on the directional control of ”precise guidance", intensify efforts to reform the economic structure and improve the supply side of the economy so as to meet aggregate demand and lock in the policy objectives. At the same time, through active communication, we should shape and stabilize the public’s expectations of macroeconomic policies and expand the regulatory space for policies to achieve steady economic growth.