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随着经济快速发展,我国铜的行业市场受国际环境和国内经济的发展将会出现明显的波动情况,而期货市场上的铜价格对企业的生产具有一定指导作用.本文以上海期货市场的沪铜连续指数为研究对象,选取了伦铜价格、现货价格、PPI、PMI、美元指数等相关宏观经济因素在2011年至2014年的月度数据,采用ADF单位根方法检验其平稳性,并用逐步回归法进行实证分析得出了结论,结果反映伦铜价格、铜的现价以及PMI指数对沪铜期货的价格影响较为显著。
With the rapid economic development, China’s copper industry market will be subject to significant fluctuations in the international environment and domestic economic development, while the copper prices in the futures market will play a guiding role in the production of enterprises.This paper takes the Shanghai futures market in Shanghai Copper continuous index is selected as the research object. The monthly data of the relevant macroeconomic factors such as LME copper price, spot price, PPI, PMI and the US dollar index are selected from 2011 to 2014, and the stationarity is tested by ADF unit root method, The results of empirical analysis concluded that the results reflect the price of copper, the copper price and the PMI index on the Shanghai copper futures prices more significant impact.