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随着人民币升值预期的持续升温,以及贸易顺差的不断扩大,流动性不断上升,中国资产泡沫正在开始形成和积累。尽管宏观调控取得了明显的成效,但在流动性泛滥的影响下,固定资产投资和信贷反弹的压力也在不断上升。而且,随着直接融资比例不断上升,“金融脱媒”将日益深化,央行既要解决流动性过剩问题,也要面对新的宏观调控压力。一、宏观调控成效明显(一)贸易顺差创下新高,经济运行较为稳定进口增速大幅放缓导致贸易顺差再创新高。10月出
With the expectation of a sustained rise in RMB appreciation and the continuous expansion of the trade surplus, the liquidity keeps rising and the asset bubble in China is beginning to take shape and accumulate. Despite the obvious achievements made in macroeconomic regulation and control, under the influence of liquidity flooding, the pressure on investment in fixed assets and credit rebounding is also on the rise. Moreover, with the rising proportion of direct financing and the deepening of “financial disintermediation,” the central bank should not only solve the problem of excess liquidity but also face new pressures of macro-control. First, the macroeconomic regulation and control have achieved remarkable results (a) The trade surplus hit a new high with a relatively stable economy The import growth slowed sharply, causing the trade surplus to hit a new high. October out